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SEC Tournament: The Numbers Predict…

2013 SEC Mens

The SEC Tournament is set to tip-off Wednesday evening when the South Carolina Gamecocks take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. While that game won’t have much on the line, many teams have everything to play for during the conference’s annual tournament. Teams including Kentucky, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are all fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives one week before the actual madness begins. While the games are a number of days away, predictions on how things will shake out are already out in full force. Whether it be on Twitter or a legitimate news source, many people have differing opinions on who the victor will be.

One set of predictions often examined during tournament time are Ken Pomeroy’s computer predictions, more specifically his “Log5” forecasts. The Log5 method uses a team’s winning percentage in order to predict their percentage chance of advancing to a specific round. While those predictions are excellent, they don’t predict the score of games that far in advance. Also, they haven’t been released yet.  Given that I’m impatient, I used my own mathematical formula and paired it with Pomeroy’s data to predict scores of the SEC Tournament.

First, you should note my formula isn’t the exact same as Pomeroy’s, so it’ll be slightly different from what his system would predict. However, it usually comes within 1 or 2 points of his forecasts.   Secondly, these predictions are based off how strong (or weak) the teams are currently. As the tournament progresses, score predictions will change depending on how teams play.  Finally, to ensure maximum accuracy, Vanderbilt was given a semi-home court advantage over Arkansas and Kentucky was awarded the same advantage against Arkansas and Missouri. So without further delay, here are the mathematical predictions for the SEC Tournament.



The numbers above a team’s name indicates a score in the previous round. For example the “65-61” over South Carolina in game four indicates the game one score prediction.

Article written by Jonathan Schuette

27 Comments for SEC Tournament: The Numbers Predict…

  1. How schmo
    10:37 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Looks like we found the new bti

  2. JJK
    10:57 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Rumors flying all over the place this morning that Wiggins committed to UNC last night. Apparently he met privately with some of the Carolina greats. Not sure if Jordan was involved. Hopefully we will get Randle.

  3. Timd
    11:01 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    No upsets? Your final four is pretty much the way the reg season turned out.

  4. SeoulCat
    11:08 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    #2, where did you hear that?

  5. Mark
    11:08 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Lol at number 2comment. You have nothing better to do than troll a comment section?your life must be exciting.

  6. Musehobo
    11:09 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    1) This is definitely a BTI post. You can’t use a simple mathematic formula to account for all the conexities and nuances that affect the outcome. And even if you did, it still would be off. Players have off games. Players go off. Players get hurt…foul out…ejected. I mean it’s real cute and all, but if we all know its bogus, then why do it?

  7. What?
    11:09 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    #3 – What do you mean no upsets? I count 3; including a loss for us to Mizzou.

  8. SeoulCat
    11:13 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    #6, not to mention things like hot/cold streaks, recent injuries, fan-fueled “home court advantage,” etc. etc.

  9. niaps
    11:14 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    No way you can ever predict a UK game as these guys have been all over the place this year from horrible (Tenn.) to shut down defense in the last 7 mins. against the gay turds. Cats need a win maybe 2 to feel more comfortable.

  10. sons of anarchy
    11:27 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    I say to hell with all this ‘we need to win atleast one maybe 2 games to be safe’. Lets just hope the team feeds off of BBN in Nashville like they have in Rupp for all the big games and go ahead and give us our 3rd sec tourney title in 4 years. hopefully the players dont have the same mindset as some of the fans and think they will be ok to mail it in after one or two wins

  11. mudcreekmark
    11:36 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Why don’t you just play some NCAA13 video games with your buddies and post those results too. It would be just as interesting and just as accurate.

  12. UK Homer
    11:37 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Yeah how dare he not be able to predict hot/cold streaks and big upsets.

  13. Travis
    11:45 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Has anyone been able to find a replay of the Florida game online? Thanks!

  14. John Ellis
    11:50 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Well, except for Georgia upsetting Florida and Tennessee and UK beating MO and winning it all, it’s pretty accurate.

  15. Cats
    11:52 am March 10, 2013 Permalink


  16. Some Guy in Kentucky
    11:56 am March 10, 2013 Permalink

    UK women’s SEC tourney game is today at 6pm est on ESPN2.

  17. Ridge Runner
    12:04 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Speculation is fun I suppose but as mentioned earlier…too many (way too many) intangibles and things that go bump in the game to speculate much.

    Agreed…2 games with a “W” is our safe zone.

  18. Ridge Runner
    12:09 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    15, I guess it’s all in the eyes of the beholder but for me…I’m glad we don’t have a hot Tennessee team and a just beaten Florida team until the finals if at all. A semi final game should be expected to be tough, so I’m ok with this draw.

  19. Captain Obvious
    12:17 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Of course a mathematical formula can’t precisely predict the outcome of a game. If there was such a thing Vegas would be out of business. This is just to stir up some conversation.

    Ever gotten into a “so, who do you think is gonna win?” conversation? Well this one takes that conversation and puts numbers against it.

    So ease up, 6, 8, 9.

  20. Bizzaro World
    12:17 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Ole Miss will beat Mizzou- UK will beat Arkansas handily. Ole Miss vs UK round 2 will be a complete toss up. I’d feel better against Mizzou a 2nd time. They play like garbage away from home. Kinda like UK

  21. Bizzaro World
    12:20 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    18) I agree about not wanting to meet up with UT in the SEC, but part of me just wants to watch UK beat their asses too. We owe that punk Amani <~ sp? Moore a shove to the floor or a punch to the groin.

  22. Bizzaro World
    12:23 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    Anybody who intentionally shoves a UK player to the floor on a drive when theyre up 35 with less than 5:00 left in the game had earned a permanent spot on my sh*t list. He’s just a freshman too. I hope he got his jollies cause they’re never going to be in that position again.

  23. Ridge Runner
    12:37 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    21) Understood. They’re day will come.

  24. Beepthacreep
    12:41 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    15# are you crazy this bracket is perfect. How can you complain no Florida or tenn? To me this is a miricale draw and one that we should make the finals and have the full support of the bbn to hopefully will our young cats to a title then in my eyes this year is excepabe no matter what happens in sec

  25. Bluekzus
    12:54 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    I’ll take this draw. Especially if it turns out to be a rematch with Arkansas on a not very neutral court.

  26. Strings
    7:14 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    It’s like home games for the Cats . I”M going with KY.

  27. eastcoastcat
    9:35 pm March 10, 2013 Permalink

    They’re afraid to put us in The BIG Dance cause they are afraid we will WIN the damn thing. go cats