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SEC Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Don’t ask me how accurate these numbers are, or how they were even calculated, but a University of Alabama blog has come up with the SEC Tournament seeding probabilities.  The site and its mysterious SEC probability theory estimates Kentucky has a 41.9% chance of earning the #2 seed in the East and a bye in the SEC Tournament.  At this point, it’s pretty much between Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and the two teams will play tomorrow night.  We’ve been over the scenarios a hundred times, but it’s nice to see a number that lets us know where we stand.

I still can’t believe it’s already SEC Tournament time. My, how time flies when you’re yelling at the television.

EAST #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
Florida 100.0%
Vanderbilt 51.5% 37.5% 9.5% 1.5%
Kentucky 41.9% 40.5% 13.0% 4.6%
Georgia 2.4% 16.9% 65.2% 15.5%
Tennessee 4.2% 5.1% 12.3% 78.4%
South Carolina 100.0%



Roll Bama Roll – SEC Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

21 Comments for SEC Tournament Seeding Probabilities



  1. FAT BALD GUY
    11:25 am February 28, 2011 Permalink

    Kentucky should have a higher probabilty to the #3 seed.



  2. Kentucky14
    11:38 am February 28, 2011 Permalink

    So if we win out, do we need Vandy to lose to Florida also? What is the tie breaker?



  3. BigBlueJim
    11:44 am February 28, 2011 Permalink

    I have 6 sets of tickets for the SEC tournament: section 121, row 3, seats 1 – 6, all sessions. Each set will go for face value of $325 per set (cash only). [email protected]



  4. Cats
    11:45 am February 28, 2011 Permalink

    Run wild where garden flys Kentucky craft boat through the jungle. December.



  5. Wall2Cousins
    11:47 am February 28, 2011 Permalink

    wudafuk did #4 just say? LOL



  6. RUPPSrhetoric
    11:49 am February 28, 2011 Permalink

    2. Yes we would need Vandy to lose to Florida.



  7. HiMyNameIs
    12:01 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    Man 5 out of these 6 teams are pretty much NCAA tournament bound and the SEC had a “down year”? I know the west is down but the SEC doesn’t get enough credit in basketball because the football conference is so dominate. The Big East is overated and you’ll see come March Madness!



  8. bcat
    12:02 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    I just think we have to win out..it doesnt matter what happens to Vandy with Florida. Vandy is right now 4-4 in the east and we are 5-3. So if we beat Vandy and win out we would be 7-3 in the east. If Vandy beat Florida they would still just be 5-5 in the east. Georgia is 4-6 in the east so I think they are pretty much out of it unless Kentucky and UK lose both games and Georgia wins out.



  9. BigBlueFan31
    12:06 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    #7. You are absolutely correct. I hope the Big East gets 11 just so we can watch all 11 exit before the Elite 8!



  10. Cats100222000
    12:07 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    8. That’s what I thought but everyone else is saying Vandy needs to lose another game other than to Kentucky. If we do end up with the 3 seed…who would we play as of right now?



  11. Alamo_CatFan
    12:09 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    UK a 5 seed in the latest bracketology…dreaded second round matchup with the Johnies…



  12. NBA league pass
    12:09 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    Not to be Dr. Obvious, but we really need that bye. I’d hate to see this team on day four of back to back’s playing only six guys.
    Maybe Cal has been saving Hood and Poole all year for this moment, haha.



  13. Alamo_CatFan
    12:10 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    overall though, I’d take that draw in a NY second



  14. BigBluDrew
    12:10 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    I want to say win out.. But how many more examples do we need that UK will beat Vandy at home no problem. And lose by 2 to TENN on the road. Write it down.



  15. Alamo_CatFan
    12:12 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    …not to mention the potential to deliver emmert a money shot in the third round.



  16. Troll Detector
    12:12 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    10) Prolly the W6 seed…I’m guessing Auburn?



  17. SavnanahCat
    12:13 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    10) Auburn



  18. SavnanahCat
    12:16 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    I don’t think it’s a huge deal for these guys to play 4 days in a row. Auburn is the same as a day off.
    The problem is the time of the games. They moved the late games back an hour this year, so the last game starts at 10pm. Our second round game would also be 10pm and then have to come back on Saturday at 3:30 probably against Florida.



  19. Mack
    1:01 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    According to the bama people everyone’s highest “seeding probabilities” are at their current seed except for the CATS whose highest “seeding probabilities” are one seed higher than our current 3 seed, if I am reading this correctly.



  20. Hood's Overbite
    1:04 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    By only going six players deep, we will get slaughtered in the third game….that is, if we make it that far. Well we certainly lead the league in over-analysis. Maybe we should worry about whether we make the NCAA Toruney or not.



  21. UK1990
    2:35 pm February 28, 2011 Permalink

    Vandy beats us, they are the #2 seed. If we finish tied with any ONE other team, we win the tie-break because of our head-to-head (1-1 against all 3) and then eastern record (7-3 or 6-4) but if we finish tied with VU and GA we lose the tiebreak to VU (3-1 against UK and GA). If we finish tied with VU and GA and UT (at 9-7), we lose the tiebreak to UT (4-2 vs. VU,UK, GA). Tiebreaks start with combined record against the teams you are tied with.