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Projecting John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins’ Sophomore NBA Stats

Last week, ESPN projected the rookie stats of several of the top draft picks and tabbed Brandon Knight to put up 8.0 ppg in his first season as a Piston.  This week, Kevin Pelton got after it again, this time projecting the 2011-12 (or whenever) stats of this past season’s rookies and comparing their stats with players that came before them.  John Wall was compared to Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins landed the coveted Antoine Walker comparison.  Shimmy away, my friends.

Here is what he had to say:

John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards

17.6 ppg, 8.5 apg, 4.6 rpg (16.4, 8.3, 4.6)

For Wall, a breakthrough season seems to be another year away. In fact, of the five players in this group, Wall’s comparables saw the least average improvement the following season — just 4.5 percent. Although Wall is frequently compared to Derrick Rose, who also played for John Calipari in college and was taken No. 1 overall, SCHOENE matches him with Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder because both players made a relatively low percentage of their 2-point attempts. (Rose is fifth on the list.) Rose was an All-Star as a sophomore, but his big improvement came last season, when he won the MVP award. Westbrook also broke out in his third season, making the All-Star team for the first time.

That’s not to say Wall won’t improve in Year 2. A big difference could be seen in his turnover rate. Similar players cut their turnovers by 6.4 percent the following season, which explains why Wall’s assists-to-turnover rate is projected to go from 2.20 to 2.31.

DeMarcus Cousins, F/C, Sacramento Kings

15.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.2 apg (14.1, 8.6, 2.5)

When you think of Cousins, you probably don’t think of passing, but statistically his assist rate was one of the strongest aspects of his game as a rookie. Similar players (led, amusingly, by fellow Kentucky product Antoine Walker) handed out nearly a third more assists the next season, which would take Cousins over three assists a night. Just six big men in the league, including Griffin, averaged more than Cousins’ projection of 3.2 apg. As important to Sacramento might be a decline in Cousins’ foul rate, projected at more than 6 percent. Cousins led the NBA last season with 4.1 fouls per game. In fact, he fouled 58 more times than anyone else in the league.

(SCHOENE cannot account for the possibility that Cousins plays a different role next season. Because center Samuel Dalembert is a free agent and the Kings dealt for power forward J.J. Hickson, Cousins could end up logging far more minutes in the middle.)

Again, this doesn’t count the Kentucky Effect, but it’s a nice effort.  I guess.

Article written by Thomas Beisner

21 Comments for Projecting John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins’ Sophomore NBA Stats

  1. Pete Thamel's Lazy Eye
    11:07 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Is that a future Karen Sypher

  2. wow
    11:13 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    i like where cousins is looking at and with his hands in his pants

  3. Jones Returns
    11:14 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Eyes up Cuz…eyes up

  4. shimmy
    11:22 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    odd man out = aaron boyd

  5. Forgot about the flash
    11:25 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Is that see-through nip?

  6. Forgot about the flash
    11:25 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Is that shirt see-through?

  7. knightynight
    11:31 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    I predict that Jimmer will be a huge flop in the NBA…once he realizes that he won’t get kicked off the team for drinking/being intimate with women, his focus will shift elsewhere.

  8. JMan
    11:31 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Hmmm…I guess they don’t call if flash photography for nothing.

  9. UKeith26
    11:58 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    this is old. i read this last week. ksr fail

  10. yuuuuuuuup
    11:59 am July 11, 2011 Permalink

    yes, that would be the first ever KSR nip slip!

  11. Forgot about the flash
    12:08 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Sex sells Gwen, sex sells

  12. Aw Naw
    1:00 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    All aboard…..Choo Choo….I see a TRAIN coming…lol

  13. iWantToGrowUpToBeTheDrewFranklin
    1:22 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    As a wise man once said…Who let these hoes in my room?

  14. iWantToGrowUpToBeTheDrewFranklin
    1:23 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    And i’m pretty sure there is no nip slip…

  15. the anti-cat
    1:45 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Well, it is pretty clear what else was being projected. Must be chilly somewhere.

  16. Bunzz
    3:34 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Hey, a picture with Boogie smiling!….All it takes is a white girl sticking her ass out!…Always makes me smile too.

  17. boyfrombinghamtown
    3:43 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    I hear the train a coming, the blonds are gonna bend,
    the field hasn’t seen Mr. Boyd since I don’t know when,
    When Cuz was just a baby, his mama told him son,
    Always be the first in, be the “one and done”
    Remember Rick shot his wad in seconds,
    It landed on Karen’s one good eye.
    But when you hear Eric say he’s gonna git sh*! right,
    Take John and run straight into the night…….

  18. mudcreekmark
    4:01 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Bros and hos.

  19. mudcreekmark
    4:04 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    It looks like Bledsoe has a check book in his hand. Go figure.

  20. 100%truth
    6:51 pm July 11, 2011 Permalink

    Wall ripped the one in the middle that night

  21. trey
    7:23 am July 12, 2011 Permalink

    blonde on left is real piece of azz, take my word ive had it..i got tons of picks of her too!!!