Kentucky is given a 19.6 percent chance of winning the Southeastern Conference, according to Ken Pomeroy. As conference play is right around the corner, the master of statistical analysis in college basketball forecasts the regular season champions in each of the 32 conferences. Using his own offensive and defensive ratings through the end of the year, he ran 10,000 simulations of each conference schedule.
Listed next to each team is the number of times it won the conference out of those 10,000 simulations. Diving by 100 gives the percentage chance that Pomeroy gives the team of winning the conference. If a team is not listed, it did not win a single simulation.
Pomeroy says this does not exactly predict conference champions; rather which team would get the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. How accurate do you think Pomeroy is?