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Pomeroy gives Kentucky a slim chance of winning the SEC

Kentucky is given a 19.6 percent chance of winning the Southeastern Conference, according to Ken Pomeroy. As conference play is right around the corner, the master of statistical analysis in college basketball forecasts the regular season champions in each of the 32 conferences. Using his own offensive and defensive ratings through the end of the year, he ran 10,000 simulations of each conference schedule.

Listed next to each team is the number of times it won the conference out of those 10,000 simulations. Diving by 100 gives the percentage chance that Pomeroy gives the team of winning the conference. If a team is not listed, it did not win a single simulation.

Florida 7223
Kentucky 1955
Ole Miss 410
Missouri 353
Tennessee 26
Alabama 23
Arkansas 7
Texas A&M 1
Georgia 1 tie

Pomeroy says this does not exactly predict conference champions; rather which team would get the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. How accurate do you think Pomeroy is?

Article written by Stuart Hammer

B.S. Broadcast Journalism from the University of Kentucky. @StuartHammerKSR

31 Comments for Pomeroy gives Kentucky a slim chance of winning the SEC

  1. liberal media
    11:11 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    UK def has a better change than 20%….

  2. Steve Fitts
    11:11 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    There is no such thing as “diving by 100” but there is such a thing as “dividing by 100.” I recommend proofreading prior to posting.

  3. UK Fan
    11:13 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Based on current performance, I’d say pretty accurate.

  4. Musehobo
    11:26 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    These simulations can be wildly inaccurate, but I’ve found Pomeroy to have the most accurate ranking system. He takes into account MANY variables that regular poles ignore.

  5. UK Freshmen
    11:28 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Huh? This team was ranked #3 preseason? What happened? Injuries? Nope. Players left? Nope. Players suspende? Nope. Only answer: It’s been a terrible coaching job.

  6. MtnCat
    11:31 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Cal will be there when the time comes.
    Teams don’t win a thing in January.

  7. heshimuEvans'2ndGradeTeacher
    11:37 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    This is what happens when geeks try to be involved in sports

  8. What?
    11:38 am January 2, 2013 Permalink doesn’t even say that.

  9. FrankTheTank
    11:40 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    So, you’re saying there’s a chance??!!

  10. the ghost of Bill Hicks
    11:45 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    I must have missed the part where we hang banners for conference championships.

  11. cayts
    11:46 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    I doubt his simulations take into account the learning curve that will occur with this team, which is probably the youngest in the history of college basketball. The projections are probably only based on past performance. This team has the tools but hasn’t learned how to work with them yet. Cal will push the right buttons and I think our team will be scary at the end of the year. One big question though is can this young team weather the long & exhausting SEC schedule? If they can get mentally tough I think our chances of winning the SEC are much higher than 20%.

  12. UK Freshmen
    11:55 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    I DEMAND Coach Cal’s resignation today! We cannot tolerate this poor effort. Stand with me and we shall take this to the Supreme Court if necessary. Fellow Posters: Are you with me?

  13. ChicagoCat
    11:55 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    I’m more surprised Ole Miss is #3 over Mizzou. I admittedly have paid less attention to the overall cbball landscape this year, but the Rebels? Really?

  14. UK Freshmen
    11:56 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Pre-Season rankings are NEVER wrong. Therefore, poor coaching is the only answer to this travesty. The National Championship was a FLUKE I tell you, a FLUKE.

  15. UK Freshmen
    11:58 am January 2, 2013 Permalink

    If we as fans choose NOT to take action against this poor coaching job, where does that leave us? A failure to ACT is unconscionable!

  16. KBF
    12:03 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    #16, Holloway for Ole Miss has put up ridiculous numbers. They are a pretty good team. I’m pretty surprised anyone would project them over Mizzou though.

  17. KBF
    12:03 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Sorry, I meant #13, not #16.

  18. Jughead
    12:16 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    UK Freshmen molests collies. Really.

  19. MJ4UK
    12:20 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    I think this scenario plays out true, only if Florida sweeps UK. Otherwise the SEC regular season champs will tie (FL and UK)

  20. sgt. stadenko
    12:23 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Ken Pomeroy is usually pretty accurate and his website is a better guage rankings than any poll out there. If you recall after the UL game, UL’s radio guy, Bob Valvano even said that he thinks Kentucky is a victim of vindicative poll voting because of the anti Calipari sentiment and the whole one and done deal. He said it was ridiculous because it is not fair to the Kentucky kids who should be ranked higher and then said it cheapens UL’s win over a good UK team. One could also venture a guess and say that UK is a victim of its own success maybe? Anyway, the point being that polls are biased and seem to play politics rather than each voter be completely objective. That is where Ken Pomeroy comes in. His site is kind of like the number crunching that occurred in the movie “Moneyball” as well as the new thing in baseball called sabremetrics (spelling). If these are the same thing then please forgive my ignorance. I use Pomeroy as an aide when betting ball games as well as completing my brackets in March and yes, its just one reference tool among many out there. However, I have found it to be pretty accurate and extremely objective, for what that’s worth.

    The prediction isn’t really that far fetched guys. Our young cats haven’t done jack shit on the road this year and you know how (even in the SEC) when UK comes to town, its that teams super bowl where they sell out the arena, have a black/red/green/white/blue out, and usually play out of their minds above their own ability. I can’t see us going 12-4 but maybe I’m wrong. We’ll see I guess. I can tell you though Florida is legit and should be the favorites (as they deserve to be) heading into conference play. Obviously, games are not played on paper or on Ken Pomeroy’s site so anything can happen in the next 2 1/2 months. GO CATS!!!!

  21. sgt. stadenko
    12:25 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    #2 Steve Fritts:

    You’re the guy that the teacher told to write names on the board when she went to the bathroom, aren’t you.

  22. UKBlue1!
    12:52 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    #3. I bet you wish Tubby was coaching the Cats? or GCG!

  23. UKBlue1!
    12:54 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    #20 UK plays 18 conference games this year.

  24. Delk for 3
    1:36 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    In all reality, I’d think Kentucky, Mizzou, and Florida all have an equal chance at winning. 33 percent for each team.

  25. UK Freshmen
    1:42 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    UNC was last year’s preseason #1. And they didn’t win it all. Fire Roy!!!

  26. AtTheEndOfThe Day
    2:04 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Media who picked UK as preseason Top 5 are now angry that this young team has under-performed their unrealistic predictions. Typical media response is to now flame the team in an equally silly way by leaving them out of the Top 25. By mid-March, there will be a lot of backtracking as those same dimwits try to explain why a 4-seeded Cats team is entering the Dance as an extremely dangerous team. They’ll also have to admit (maybe) that Cal is an excellent basketball coach.

  27. GapToothDanny
    2:24 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    I wonder if KenPom has a variable for the games that will be officiated by TV Ted or Doug Shows? If either of those two are officiating a game that’s on national TV, all bets are off…

  28. TrailerDweller
    2:31 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Hail know!!! We’z #won ever yar!! Howe dare that thar Pomoranian bad mouth us’ns Katz!!!

  29. L1CrownRoyal4Life
    2:46 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Yo dogs. You kats got nuthin on us straight up Gs in Louisville. We spanked you kitty katz this weekend. I’ll be my guberment cheese that we win the Sugar Bowl tonight. Speaking of bowl, I got’s to go smoke one now. L yeah!

  30. Section8Housing
    2:48 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    Word! L1C4 and no that ain’t Louisville 1 Cal 4 you dum hicks.

  31. Yoda
    3:29 pm January 2, 2013 Permalink

    #20 – Sabermetrics is hardly the “new thing in baseball”. Sabermetrics have been around since ’94 and Billy Beane used them to build the Oakland A’s. “Moneyball” is simply the title of the book/movie, sabermetrics is the catalyst to that ends.