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Numbers Prove: Win and You’re In, Lose and Go Home

This Rush the Court post links to an interesting and simple analysis of wins and NCAA Tournament appearances. Author Steve Greenwell complies a list of all teams of the last three years with 18+ win seasons and whether or not the team made the NCAA Tournament. He then tweaked his findings to adjust for post-season play and automatic bids from weak conferences.

The results and Steve’s summary:

27 wins or more - 100 percent (54/54)
26 wins - 71.43 percent (10/14)
25 wins - 86.96 percent (20/23)
24 wins - 65.22 percent (15/23)
23 wins - 55.88 percent (19/34)
22 wins - 47.62 percent (20/42)
21 wins - 23.81 percent (10/42)
20 wins - 15.91 percent (7/44)
19 wins - 11.36 percent (5/44)
18 wins - 11.11 percent (5/45)

25 wins guarantees you a spot in the NCAA tournament, and 24 wins gives you at least a 65 percent chance, and higher once you subtract automatic bids from weak conferences. Anything lower than 24, and the conference you play in becomes substantially more important.

The bad news: the SEC has the worst RPI out of the BCS conferences. Good news: SEC moved ahead of the Mountain West and every other mid-major conference. The Bracket Matrix currently projects 5 SEC teams getting bids — including Butt-Head‘s Gator team as the highest seeded SEC team (#8).

Article written by The Fake Gimel Martinez

I may be fake, but my passion for UK sports is real. Probably put all my best work at and, so go there when I start coasting here.