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KSR FBS Power Rankings (Week 8 Adjusted)

Conference play is in full swing throughout college football at the current juncture and because of that we are starting to weed out the pretenders from the contenders.  Alabama is clearly the class of college football while others like Kansas State, Oregon, and Florida are now starting to make their cases for a potential title game appearance.  Even one loss teams like Oklahoma and LSU are far from being out of the national title discussion.  Of course there’s an opposite end to that spectrum as well, teams like Kentucky are still rated tremendously low despite an encouraging performance over the weekend.  While the so called “eye test” gives somewhat decent indication of how well a team is performing there is no real accurate way for us to judge all teams and accurately rank them.  So to solve this issue I created my own rating system in the mold of Ken Pomeroy’s Basketball Ratings, using a tool that the BCS computers can’t use, margin of victory.  It may be politically incorrect, but it gives a very accurate measurement of team strength.

 

Some of the concepts may be foreign to you so here are critical things to know when making your personal evaluations.

1. This system rates teams based upon tempo free scoring margin, meaning teams who play up-tempo styles aren’t rewarded for inflated scoring margins. (Think Oregon and Oklahoma State, naturally they would have larger margins of victory than would a slow paced team of equal skill).  The numbers in the first two columns are simply points scored/allowed divided by possessions, putting every team on the same scale.

 

2. This system does not measure actual margin of victory, it measures the ratio between offense and defense.  By doing so actual margin is de-emphasized slightly.

 

3. Defense is more valued than offense.  This also combats inflated offensive numbers.  Think of it this way, a team that outscores opponents 100-10 would be predicted to win 99% of their games while a team that outscores their opponents 190-100 would only be predicted to win 78% of their games.  Equal scoring margins, but the first team is better because opposing teams can’t score, meaning greater chance of victory. There’s too much evidence in CFB that suggests defense wins more often than offense.

 

4. Games against FCS opponents are de-emphasized to prevent inflated margins.

 

5.  Strength of schedule and location of game are accounted for.  Using last year as an example, UCF’s 41-0 win over Memphis compared to Alabama’s 38-14 win over Arkansas.  Without strength of schedule UCF’s win over a pitiful Memphis squad would look better than Alabama’s win over a very good Razorback squad.  Once SOS was accounted for UCF v. Memphis came to an adjusted score of 38-7 while Alabama’s win over Petrino’s Hogs came to an adjusted score of 43-6.  So it’s better to beat good teams by a smaller margin than bad teams by a greater margin.  Location of game is accounted for by giving extra credit for winning on the road and taking away credit for losing at home.

 

Something to also keep in mind is that a team may be rated lower than an opponent who they’ve already defeated.  Since my system rates teams based off an entire season of opponents played and their performance against individual teams this may be the case (see LSU and Texas A&M for example).  Also, if you were to examine other systems which are used in the BCS calculations you’d not only see that Alabama isn’t #1 in a majority of computer polls (despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary), but teams who have defeated other individual teams are ranked lower. Stanford/USC in the Billingsley Ratings and Oklahoma/Kansas State in the Sagarin Ratings are prime examples of this.  A team being rated ahead after a loss to another specific team may also indicate an upset.  Just know that no system, eye test or computer rating, will have teams rated 100% correctly.  While all games are equally as important the whole sample of data is more important than an individual game.

 

Without further delay, here’s how the teams stack up after 8 weeks of play with strength of schedule taken into account.

If you have any further questions about the ratings tweet me @SchuetteKSR for further explanation.

Article written by Jonathan Schuette

18 Comments for KSR FBS Power Rankings (Week 8 Adjusted)



  1. Catfan858
    9:34 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Good God. Not again.



  2. Experienced
    9:36 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Whooooooo caressssssssssss



  3. tdogg40330
    9:37 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Alabama will destroy any East team in the SEC Championship game ….



  4. UKUKUK1865
    9:41 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Hell Yea! Suck it Akron.



  5. The Poop Eating Lady From Hoarders
    9:54 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Please tell me someone else saw this…



  6. BPsycho
    10:01 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    #5 That sounds wtf worthy enough lol

    I’m watching the debate, no poop eating, just poop spewing xD

    naw but seriously pretty entertaining debate for real.



  7. barn
    10:06 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    how about some graphs and charts?



  8. isuuc in Long Beach
    10:14 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Where is UK in the power rankings? Until we are relevant, I don’t think most UK fans give a damn about things like this.



  9. Ed
    10:21 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Nice. Uofl ranked 53, behind wku. I like it already.



  10. Catfan
    10:32 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Helpful hint, your system accounts for alot of things exept wins, losses, coaches polls, and strength of schedule you might add that to the beta version.



  11. Joker for president
    10:40 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    We are ranked 101st! That is outrageous. That simply won’t do. Joker should stay at uk untill we are 124 out of 124. I mean who do those 23 teams worse than us think they are.



  12. DT from georgetown
    10:44 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    I have a college football question that has nothing to do with this topic but I think is Kinda interesting.
    Whats the deal with all the coaches covering their mouths when they talk into their headsets?
    Anybody see the trainers holding the towels up in front of the coaches during the FSU-Miami game? Thats the most extreme case I’ve seen,i laughed when i saw it.
    Are teams using lip readers ? and if so who was caught doing it 1st that made all the coaches go into def-con 5 super secret mode ? Do we use lip readers?
    Oh and another question,,why do the traveling teams always bring 3-4 of their own state troopers to escort their coaches off the field? They dont trust the home teams state troopers?
    What a sweet gig that must be.
    Has a coach ever been attacked or assaulted to justify this? Just wondering.



  13. Big D
    11:25 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    I actually find this interesting but keep playing with this maybe emphasize losses I don’t know how ttech is that high and Oklahoma



  14. HHH
    11:25 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    U know I put in the best cheats in NCAA football made all my player 7 tall 400lbs faster than shi t for UK and still couldn’t win

    That’s how bad even the computer joker sucks

    Brown bag time



  15. Ken
    11:56 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Another horrible article by Jonathan Schuette. This high extreme of suck has become standard and accossiated with his name. He has represented it well.



  16. Duke Sucks
    11:59 pm October 22, 2012 Permalink

    Joker has let our program get to the point where we should quit worrying about where other schools are ranked. We need to quit seeing if UL or WKU is the best in the state. The one thing I KNOW is UK is dead last in the state and SEC. It’s funny how some people think we will beat Vandy. Good god people Samford isn’t a given with this team. Let’s get UK better before we worry about UL. Rooting for other teams to pass UL is a losers mentality and frankly is something UL fans are famous for towards our BB program. UK should be better then this. My guess is we will take a giant step at improving during the bye week by firing the Joke.



  17. AaronJ
    7:19 am October 23, 2012 Permalink

    Boring as hell, UK Football blows… End of discussion.



  18. barn
    7:55 am October 23, 2012 Permalink

    12–all are questions i have asked too. i doubt they will be answered on here though.