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Kentucky vs. Georgia simulation

I’m not sure what is with the WhatIfSports prediction engine and actually giving Kentucky a chance anymore. Last week against Arkansas it projected a 23-16 Razorbacks victory — in four quarters of play. Obviously the 49 points Tyler Wilson and Company put up in just three quarters makes that simulation a total bust. Wilson and his Razorbacks took the field as a four-loss team, but eyeing the Cats as a punching bag. Safe to say a season’s worth of frustration was exhausted on Kentucky in those 40 minutes.

Without even looking at the box score I can tell you what happened: Kentucky’s passing game was non-existent and the run game did nothing. On the other side, Tyler Wilson had no trouble threading the needle to his wide open receivers, and the Razorbacks ground attack hardly had to break a sweat to move the chains. Add that up, 40 minutes later, it’s 49-7.

So if you’re Joker Phillips, where do you go from there? How do you build off a 42-point loss to a 2-4 team that likely would have been even worse if not for the sky opening up to stop the carnage? Do you come back home and play inspired football for Homecoming week? Traditionally Kentucky plays Georgia well, despite the rankings. Last season it was “only” a nine-point loss on the road, and the season before was not a blow-out at home.

But this season, this Georgia team is just like that Arkansas squad the Cats faced last week… but legitimately good. Not one of those Mark Richt hype-machines. Georgia is averaging 41 points per game; against teams better than Kentucky. So you don’t need me to tell you the simulation is probably not even in the same stadium. But for consistency’s sake, here is this week’s WIS projection of a 25-12 Georgia win. It gives Kentucky a 15.8% chance of victory.

Go ahead, you can laugh now.

Are you finished laughing? Wipe away the tears and we’ll try to get through this together.

Where to begin? How about the 16 first downs that Kentucky is expected to gain? They picked up six against Arkansas; which could be expanded to eight through four quarters. Georgia’s defense is light years better than Arkansas’ so expect to hear a little less of the chain gang moving forward that what WIS says.

But here is a question for you: If Carl Nathe yells, “FIRST DOOOOOOWN KENTUCKY!” and nobody is there to hear it, did he really make a sound?

In a bit of good news, WIS predicts Kentucky to convert its first fourth-down attempt of the season. The Cats are 0-for-10 this season, so converting for the first time will be a step in the right direction. Small victories, people.

For Georgia, Aaron Murray is every bit as good as Tyler Wilson is for Arkansas. He is working a 62% completion rate, and is a main reason for Georgia posting as may points as they have. Remember how easily Wilson picked apart the Kentucky secondary? Even with Ashley Lowery and Cartier Rice back in the lineup, Murray is going to have a field day. Kentucky may be able to slow him down — but it’ll take a miracle to stop him.

Vegas has made Georgia a 27-point favorite in this one. The courage of WhatIfSports is admirable, sticking to a close game in Commonwealth Stadium, but foolish. It took Arkansas about nine minutes to build a 14-point lead over Kentucky. So a 13-point projected victory for Georgia is only part of what will be laughable on Saturday.

Article written by Stuart Hammer

B.S. Broadcast Journalism from the University of Kentucky. @StuartHammerKSR

24 Comments for Kentucky vs. Georgia simulation

  1. Kevin C.
    2:06 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    Yeah….so why bother posting this, when we all know it’s 100% bogus BS? My copy of NCAA FB 2013 would be MUCH more accurate than this POS “engine” they’re using.

  2. Good Luck
    2:09 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    I think 42-7 is much more likely. No stats included, but Aaron Murray will hang well more than 25 on us.

  3. justme
    2:13 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    that score will not be that close… their semulation is all jacked up… if Ark (none ranked team) scored 49 on us then I say the Final of tomorrows game will be 46-3

  4. justme
    2:14 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    hit wrong key 56-3*

  5. Bicycle Seat Sniffer
    2:15 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    I like WhatIfSports but their simulations produce the dumbest scores.

  6. 3cats
    2:19 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    How do we get 178 yards passing??????? And 16 1st downs?

  7. luvmesumcats
    2:25 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    46-6 UGA.

  8. SteveM
    2:25 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    CAn you get that program to simulate Joker and Barnhart resigning? I would find that worthwhile. Otherwise, this is all crap.

  9. luvmesumcats
    2:25 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    At halftime.

  10. Bigcat76
    2:26 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    #3. “semulation is all jacked up” …that almost appears dirty.

  11. luvmesumcats
    2:27 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    The only bigger waste of time than this simulation is Jonathan Schuette’s fancy Excel work on Monday or Tuesday.

  12. JBR
    2:27 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    Yeah, really, you need to put this simulation thing each week to bed. It is completely not accurate, and almost every game has a score -winners mid 20’s, us low teens. I know this is a football space filler each week, but it is getting a little old.

  13. the way it is
    2:28 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    Unfortunately, the score is going to be a bit more painful than a 13 point moral victory-i mean loss.

  14. UKGrad83
    2:33 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    The only saving grace is that Mark Richt is a nice guy and won’t run up the score. I expect it’ll be 35 or 42 to nothing at half and then he’ll start substituting liberally. They’ll get at least one more TD and the Cats might get into the red zone a handful of times and get one field goal. Final score 45-3.

  15. Big Blue B-Rad
    2:44 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    What difficulty did they play it on where UK won 15% of the time? lol

  16. Matt in Franklin
    2:47 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    0-10 on 4th down? Wow, thats really, really depressing…almost as bad as my Z28 on blocks that my dog is tied to in front of my trailer…

  17. AG Slater
    2:47 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    Does this simulation have any idea how truly awful we are?

  18. Logan
    4:02 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    I think the cats can beat Georgia, they just have to play like Alabama

  19. Pokey Chapmen
    4:05 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    I think the guy that programs this should be on Mitch’s short list.

  20. CatGrad7072
    4:21 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    According to the sim, we have a 15.8 chance of winning. Boy, is that overstated.
    I suppose UK has a chance since the game has to be played; I’d guess 1% or less.

  21. Brownbag
    4:25 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    Rekoj, ojyram doesn’t want to wear me tonight

  22. Joker
    4:28 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    I love cheat codes

  23. jymbo
    4:42 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    Stop The Madness: Let’s pray for another storm.

  24. Claude Bassett
    5:12 pm October 19, 2012 Permalink

    I tried to get Hal to use that simulation defense when we were there. He wouldn’t listen and you see what happened.
    I’m definitely going to throw my “large cowboy hat” in the ring for the head coaching job at UK this fall.
    I believe that I have the support of the fans and I know the lawyers are on my side. I made them a lot of money defending my baseless law suit.
    Hope to see you all in November at my press conference.