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Kentucky football season simulation

PredictionMachine.com has already delivered their projections for the 2012 college football season, suggesting Kentucky will go 4-8. Now we’re back with a second opinion from the WhatIfSports.com prediction engine. After simulating thousands of games to complete the SEC Preview, WIS provided a full spread on what is the most likely outcome for the SEC teams this coming season. The outlook for the Cats isn’t pretty.

In conference, WIS predicts Kentucky to go 1-7, tied for last in the conference with Ole Miss. Tennessee finishes one spot ahead in the East, going 3-5. Georgia wins the East with a 6-2 conference record and a 10-2 overall record. In the West, Alabama and LSU tie for first with 7-1 records and 10-2 overall records.

Breaking the Cats season down game by game, WIS gives its win percentages for each matchup and an average score. The four wins on the season are Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford, and the lone SEC win comes from Mississippi State.

Note: WIS says that because of possible rounding errors during the simulations, absolute record predictions are more accurate than individual game predictions. This usually happens when teams are so evenly matched the prediction engine has a hard time distinguishing which way the game could go. WIS does predict Kentucky to beat Mississippi State, even though the probability given is only 42 percent.

A continuing theme in these games is the low point totals on both sides of the ball. According to the WIS prediction, the Kentucky offense will average 17.6 points per game. Though better than the 15.8 average from last season, not a significant improvement that translates to more wins. On the other side, the defense is predicted to surrender 19.4 points per game, way down from last season’s 24.7 points allowed.

Where these differences in points are most noticeable is on the road at Florida, a 23-15 loss; on the road at Missouri, a 21-15 loss; at home against Vanderbilt, a 23-17 loss; and on the road at Tennessee, a 24-17 loss. All four of these games are a difference of one possession. If just a few things change for the better, the WIS prediction of a 4-8 overall record could improve significantly. Though the outlook is grim, the way it looks is Kentucky is very close to pulling off a surprise season.

 

Article written by Stuart Hammer

B.S. Broadcast Journalism from the University of Kentucky. @StuartHammerKSR

25 Comments for Kentucky football season simulation



  1. jill
    8:05 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    HaHa it said yall ain’t going to win any games…no 100% chance lol



  2. jill
    8:16 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Nice try again using my name, but i agree



  3. jill
    8:28 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    why do you keep using my name skank?



  4. jill
    8:29 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    It’s my name not yours



  5. Dr. Funke
    8:29 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    SC looked pretty beatable last night.



  6. Big Blue Fever
    8:31 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    You are both idiots



  7. KyNostradamusfan
    9:01 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Thats ok because my prediction will be that on October 12th, 2012 Kentucky fans will forget about football when the Kings of the college basketball take their thrones and start their new season



  8. nassau65
    9:10 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    jill=mrs. HooHoo



  9. Jill
    9:15 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Thats actually my name so both of you quit using it



  10. Computer
    9:22 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    I wish I could play these games for you. UofL 34 UK 10



  11. BigBlueBallz
    9:29 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Why do UL fans give UK no respect whatsoever? UK leads the all-time series and both teams’ winning percentages are just over .500 historically. And that’s with UL playing in the BE, CUSA and Doo Doo Valley Southeastern Valley. We arguably have the better program all-time.



  12. UL2UK8
    9:58 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    A flaw in the computer using last year UK football, to predict this years results is last year UK had a QB (Newton) who could not read a college defense. He also would decide in important parts of games to not run the play the coach called. Late in UL game he ran QB runs instead of the play called from the sideline.



  13. J A Brooks
    10:04 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    I love that the enthusiasm for the season in centered around not only a computer predicting us to go 4-8, but also the potential for it to be wrong…

    wow



  14. Joker can Dougie
    10:21 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Though it has us losing both games, it gives us a 5% better chance of beating Florida than Louisville



  15. Linda Taylor
    10:54 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Hey Jill, are you watching the team we beat at the end of last season (Tennessee) beating the team that beat your UL (NCST) in the Belk Bowl last year? Yoo Hoo, Jill, where are you? Are you enjoying the game? Getting a little worried? How about you Card4Life? Are you having fun watching the game? I sure am.



  16. RuppWorker
    10:57 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Umm correct me if I am wrong but doesnt the computer have us losing to Mississippi St. as well?



  17. Linda Taylor
    11:08 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    Hey Jill and Card4Life-Tennessee 35 – NCST 21. What did NCST beat you by 7? That’s a difference of 21. Add the 3 points we beat Tennessee by and you get 24. And that was using a wide receiver at QB. And you think your team is so awesome.



  18. Steve Fitts
    11:31 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    If this is true, then Joker is a goner at the end of the season! Cats won’t bring him back with a 4 and 8 record!



  19. markp
    11:38 pm August 31, 2012 Permalink

    I hope this comes true and we can rid UK football of Joker Phillips.



  20. jill
    1:29 am September 1, 2012 Permalink

    Why does my vahjayjay stink?



  21. jill
    9:48 am September 1, 2012 Permalink

    #15,,Really comparing last year games…UK lost a combined 92 to 11 to Vandy and USC you going to that again this year….UL 31 Kitty Kats 17



  22. jill
    9:55 am September 1, 2012 Permalink

    don’t listen to me I am a stupid b*itch



  23. jill
    9:56 am September 1, 2012 Permalink

    My cards lost to Marshall and FIU yet I am so damn dumb that I think we are great in football. I really I stupid.



  24. jill
    9:57 am September 1, 2012 Permalink

    Me and Karen Sypher are BFFs…we are both ugly skanks



  25. jill
    10:04 am September 1, 2012 Permalink

    I was abused as a child