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Gettin’ Closer

Big Brown

Big Brown…not just a catchy title.

Bets Made: $174                                           Status: Down $10.70 (sorry)

Keeneland Picks Friday April 18 (2 across, against the morning-line favorite)

Race 1: Campsis (3/1)

Race 2: Florida Jack Pot (6/1)

Race 3: Coquihalla (12/1)

Race 4: Madame Brillon (9/5)

Race 5: Silent Valor (4/1)

Race 6: Spanish Ghost (5/2)

Race 7: Misszoey Belle (15/1)

Race 8: Self Made Man (6/1)

Race 9: Say You Will (8/1)

Race 10: Prove Yourself (12/1)

Saturday April 19

Race 1: Coach Ryan (8/1)

Race 2: Yeah Mon (7/2)

Race 3: A Day for Dancing (4/1)

Race 4: Silence Dogood (3/1)

Race 5: Duke of Pearl (12/1)

Race 6: Rathor (4/1)

Race 7: Ride Em Cowgirl (12/1)

Race 8: Fanlight Fanny (6/1)

Race 9: St. Joe (8/1)

Race 10: Hold Your Ground (7/2)

A couple of notes for Derby (now 16 days away…sweet):

  • —In the Courier yesterday, they discussed, like a few of you, how wide open this year’s Derby is. Rick Porter, trainer of the filly Eight Belles, has decided to enter his filly in both, then, if he gets a poor Derby post draw, will scratch out of the Derby and opt for the Oaks. His quote, “We have to have a safety valve…It’s within  the rules, and I think it’s the smart way to approach it from a business point of view.” Problem here is, there is no Also Eligible list, so that steals a Derby spot from someone else. Basically, this is like accepting a bid to the NCAA tourney, but after seeing you’ve drawn an unwinnable game in Round 1, opting to go to the NIT, and no one else can fill your slot. Also, bush league move blaming it on “business.”
  • —The Ragozin Rating (computer number based on track condition, surface, distance, and track depth) uses a numerical system in which a lower number is best.  So, a Grade 1 race’s winner would normally register anywhere from a -1 to 1, while the winner of a maiden-claimer could rank anywhere to a 40.  This number is arbitrary, but the best score to date is Big Brown’s 2 scored in the Florida Derby.  The next highest score, surprisingly, is a 4 registered by Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby.  The Wood Memorial’s winner, Tale of Ekati, scored a disappointing 8.  So, if you didn’t get a lot out of the Wood, you have company (no sexual jokes, please).

Article written by Broseph