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Eighteen game breakdown

About a month ago I did a post breaking down the first twelve games of the season in two separate stat charts. I’m back with a new and improved version, this time including the last six games. What you will see is individual statistics on a game-by-game basis, but under the six-game sections are the average for that chunk of games in bold for easy comparison for how a player is progressing (or regressing) during each portion of the schedule. I’ve improved the Excel formulas from last time, so this should be spot on. Enjoy, you number nerds.

Note: “RR” stands for Roland Rating, a +/- scoring system (that isn’t incredibly accurate all the time) which rates a players individual performance, separate from the team. Basically, the statistic measures how well a team does while a player is on the floor. So for instance if player a comes in the game with his team trailing by five points and leaves the game with his team trailing by ten, he would get a rating of -5. In the case of reserve players, it becomes very skewed.

Without further ado, the statistics…

Teague showed a huge improvement in his turnover-to-assist ratio in games six through twelve, but both decreased over the last six. His scoring output has remained consistent, and minutes on the floor very high. Turning the ball over continues to be Teague’s biggest weakness, along with an inability to finish point-blank layups; his field goal percentage continues to plummet.

Lamb is still the team’s leading scorer, but barely. His shooting percentage went down considerably, as well as overall shot attempts all-around. Lamb averaged two made three’s on a little over 4 attempts per game in the first twelve, but for some reason he’s shooting less in the last six. He should get back in that groove of letting it rip from outside.

Man-Gilchrist started the season hot from everywhere on the floor and hasn’t changed a thing. The guy is simply incredible. He’s playing almost four more minutes per game than at the start of the season, and still averaging high figures. You cannot ask any more of him, though I’m sure he’d try.

The Terrence of old seems to be on the rebound, he’s got his scoring average back up to around ten points per game and rebounds at six per game — not too far off from where he’s been all season. What is most notable here is his field goal percentage at 47%, efficient enough to not be a liability; despite the feeling he’s costing the team at times. What cannot be measured in numbers is intensity and aggression, both of which Jones has boosted dramatically. Give credit to Jones for continuing to work up to his potential despite a star-studded lineup and a lingering pinky injury.

The three D’s: Davis and double-double seem almost automatic now. Still averaging double figures in points and rebounds, Davis is an invaluable piece to this long and athletic team. The biggest shock to me in Davis’ last six games is his dramatic turnaround in free throw shooting. He’s up to 83% (Granted, a large portion of that percentage came from the great day on the floor versus Louisville, but still). No longer would I consider Davis a “bad” free throw shooter. The Brow has great numbers across the board, he knows no weakness.

We’ve seen blips of greatness from Miller this season, especially against Lamar, Arkansas-Little Rock and Auburn in his last six, but we see “Disappearius” has reemerged also. Miller, like Lamb, gets into this funk of simply not shooting — I can’t imagine Coach Calipari is instructing shooters in general to pass up open looks from outside, but I could be wrong. For the most part, Miller shoots well from behind the arc when he takes more than three shots per game, like going 4-6, 3-5 and 3-5, but less than that and he’s 1-3, 0-2, and 0-1. The lesson here? Fire away, Darius!

Kyle Wiltjer is making the most of his limited minutes this season, checking in and giving a good offensive spark from the bench. Only once has he checked in failed to score a point, and you couldn’t say that before last week. Calipari praised Wiltjers five point, nine-minute performance against Tennessee. Credit him with great defense in that series, too.

If you are a super number nerd like me or your eyes just aren’t what they used to be, download the file by clicking here!

Article written by Stuart Hammer

B.S. Broadcast Journalism from the University of Kentucky. @StuartHammerKSR

23 Comments for Eighteen game breakdown

  1. yeah first!!
    12:03 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    If ye ain’t first….. ya last!

  2. Brad
    12:10 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    The fact that only 7 players were worthy of this analysis makes me nervous. I know that (it looks like) Vargas puts in quality minutes here and there, but this team is not deep.

  3. hoop33
    12:15 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    #2 the team last yr only had 6 players, most teams only play 7 in the tourney anyway. Anything more than that and you usually see a significant drop off anyway.

    Stuart Hammer, to say Kyle Wiltjer has played great defense is ridiculous. He’s constantly the man lost on defense or giving up easy buckets inside. As Matt said the other night, Wiltjer was actually so late rotating over on one play that he got the steal. Maybe he gets lucky and gets a steal here and there, but great defense? Far from it. Idc what the numbers say, if you watch the game its easy to see he has a long way to go to be a good defender.

  4. Axe Cop
    12:18 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    1. Thanks for contributing NOTHING.

    Interesting stuff here. BTI is jealous.

    12:24 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    I read enough of this stuff in class already. We’re really good that’s all I need to know.

  6. Brad
    12:33 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    #3…”MOST teams,” yes. But how about the National Champions? Take a look at the last 6 (those fresh in my mind, including UF twice), they all went deeper than 7. For example, the 06-07 UF team went 9 deep.

  7. Calipari'sInYourEar
    12:33 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Thanks for the file Stuart.

    Not sure I get the value of the Roland rating…


    Teague vs. UL (FG: 1-8, 0-3 3Pt, Points: 4, Turnovers: 4, Assists: 5, Rebounds: 3, RR: 20)
    Gilchrist vs. UL (FG: 7-16, 2-4 3Pt, Points: 24, Turnovers: 1, Assists: 1, Rebounds: 19, RR: 11)

  8. Brad
    12:34 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Speights, Brewer, Green, Hodge, Horford, Humphrey, Noah, Richard, Werner. All names we know and despise.

  9. derekforuk
    12:35 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    At least BTI was enjoyable. Half way. This dude sucks. Now whenever I see any post with his name on it I’m gonna just skip it. Keep it simple bro.

  10. Jimmy the Geek
    12:42 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink


  11. Drew Apologies For The Error
    12:43 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    I was told that there would be no math.

  12. scoretowin
    12:45 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    I can’t grasp the algorithmic relevancy of the FG%/RR ratio when coagulated with the……
    Seriously, there are just too many little numbers to even begin to read this post. I am sure there are people that may read this, but they wouldn’t be friends of mine.

  13. Zach Morris
    12:48 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    9. Keep trollin’, trollin’, trollin’, trollin’, trollin’ WHAT!

  14. LexDoc
    12:50 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    As 12 pointed out, there are only a few points of information when broken down to 6 game blocks. However, if you have the raw data for each check-in, that may lead to more statistical power with your variable analysis. You could perform some sort of logistic regression analysis controlling for random variables such as shoelace color… then we could really find out the confounding variables… (I hope the following posters note the tongue in cheek sarcasm with the latter part of this post). Please don’t go looking up statistic definitions to argue.

  15. huh?
    12:58 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Credit kyle wiltjer with great defense??? Whoa the kid doesn’t play a lick of defense

  16. 13th. Grade
    1:07 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Ten minutes to Wapner.

  17. dude
    1:19 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    I understand including the +/- numbers but, if you’re going to include them, don’t you need to at least comment on Wiltjer’s? That’s the only significant instance of the +/- and the stat actually works with Wiltjer.

  18. Jimmy Hoptown Cat
    1:26 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    This is great analysis, and lots of fun to read. I’m sure there will be a few moronic “fans” who will let this fry their brain — those who aren’t smart enough to unerstand anything besides who won, but for the true fan, this is fascinating. (The comparison to BTI is misplaced, because BTI was never smart enough to draw even the most obvious conclusions. His stuff was inane drivel.)
    It is also horrifying to be confronted with the Wiltjer RR numbers. There can be little doubt what they show: whenever Kyle comes in, we lose points — a LOT of points. Not sure that necessarily means it’s his fault. It could mean that he is brought in during the other team’s bounceback moment. But it is sobering.

  19. jaws2
    2:34 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    My numbers analysis says this; when we score more points we win. All I need to know.

  20. Bledsoe's Biceps
    3:12 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    18) Sorry but your self righteous view does not define a “true fan”. Child please. I’ve probably forgotten more about math and statistical analysis than you will ever know. I find Stuart’s statistical posts to be overly long and not worthy of much attention. Just not the type of thing myself and most others come to KSR to see. It has absolutely nothing to do with my ability to comprehend it nor does it define whether I am a “true fan”. Now put your pocket protector in, your taped glasses back on and get back to the math club meeting.

  21. Jax Teller
    3:21 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    So. Much. Data.

  22. shields eyes
    3:45 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Scroll scroll scroll

  23. HooDay
    3:48 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    12. Attaway to judge.

    20. Though I disagree with you that Hammer’s posts are not worthy of attention, you were presenting your opinion in a professional, respectful, and appropriate manner until the last line. You want to know the last time I heard someone make fun of nerds? High school. There’s a reason for that — making fun of nerds is something someone with the maturity of a high school freshman would do. It was stupid then and it’s stupid now. Seeing how most of those rednecks in my high school turned out, especially when compared to the nerds they made fun of so much, I’d say that isn’t the side of the fence you want to fall on.

    Keep these posts coming Hammer, they’re fantastic.