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BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Common Denominators in Losses

What is it that makes this Kentucky basketball team lose games?  There have been many theories thrown around: the play of Terrence Jones, Darius Miller, or Brandon Knight.  Maybe it’s a NCAA conspiracy.  Maybe it’s the other team’s big men.  Lot’s of things have been spouted by UK fans, most of them off base and some of them with merit.  But, I have found 3 statistical categories that have, in almost all cases, been a common factor in UK losses:

1) Shooting below 39% from the field (UK Shooting % in each game below)

Indiana: 36.1%
UCONN: 36.7%
Georgia: 38.0%
N. Carolina: 38.7%
Washington: 39.1%
Notre Dame: 40.4%
MVSU: 45.8%
ETSU: 48.5%
Oklahoma: 50.0%
Louisville: 50.9%
WInthrop: 52.4%
Portland: 54.9%
Penn: 57.1%
Coppin St: 57.4%
Boston U.: 59.3%

2) Getting Out-rebounded (UK Rebound Margin in each game below)

N. Carolina: -8
Georgia: -3
Notre Dame: +7
Oklahoma: +8
Winthrop: +8
Portland: +11
Indiana: +11
Louisville: +12
Washington: +13
Boston U.: +13
ETSU: +17
Coppin St: +20
Penn: +21

3) Having More than 18 fouls (UK fouls committed in each game below)

N. Carolina: 26
Georgia: 24
Washington: 22
Oklahoma: 17
Portland: 17
Indiana: 17
Notre Dame: 16
Boston U.: 15
Coppin St: 15
Louisville: 15
MVSU: 10
Penn: 10
Winthrop: 8

Certainly the stat that jumps out at me the most in the rebounding statistics.  Kentucky been out-rebounded in 3 games this season, and those would be the 3 games they have lost.  In all but 4 games, they have out-rebounded their opponent by more than 7.  And while you all know my opinion about officials (that they have much less impact than people give them credit for), in games where the whistle is tight, Kentucky really struggles.  Georgia was one such game.

So, these are 3 things that I will be keeping an eye on the rest of the season.  What do you think are the common factors when Kentucky loses?  Is it a team issue, such as rebounding, or is it a particular person that this team revolves around?

Article written by Bryan the Intern

36 Comments for BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Common Denominators in Losses

  1. BTI Fan
    10:07 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    What a post!

  2. tdogg4033011
    10:10 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    in all 3 L’s UCONN, UGA & UNC have all scored more points than UK ….. seriously, good stats !!!

  3. Jmet80
    10:12 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    I think its a combination of things. Jones needs to play a more consistant strong forward. Closer to the basket than the three point line. (which leads to more rebounds). also in the losses Brandon Knight struggled a bit running the team. (He is a Freshman and will grow from the loss). Jones, Knight, and Lamb (when he is hot) need to have the ball in there hands down the stretch.. just my opinion

  4. claw
    10:15 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    It is as Coach Cal said. Players not being committed. When they play with a sense of urgency the stats do not matter. When they dial up the intensity everything takes care of itself. It’s a shame we had the same problem last season when the team would toy around with inferior opponents and let them stay in the game. It is a mental issue.

  5. Capnmonkey
    10:15 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    I think the players realize that depth is a big weakness and are worry over each foul.

    As the fouls pile up they shoot worse and become more timid in rebounding.

  6. Blue Virus
    10:20 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    We lost the damn game becuase they hit more free throws than us. It is as simple as that. The Georgia team was one of the worst at FT percentage in the conference and of course on this night, they were in the high 90’s

  7. tdogg4033011
    10:21 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    5) I agree, it seems that way anyhow …

  8. knightynight
    10:29 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    6 But we gave them the opportunity to get to the line by fouling. You can’t rely on a team to miss free throws.

  9. Joe
    10:31 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    Good post.

    Another consistent problem is a lack of balance. When UK has four players score in double figures, they’ve gone 8-0. When they have had less than four players in double figures, they’re 4-3.

  10. T
    10:34 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    No joke, we are 0-3 when I watch the game at my girlfriends. I thought the first 2 were coincidences, but now I know. I’m sorry and it won’t happen again

  11. tdogg4033011
    10:35 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    10) get rid of her now ….. lol

  12. the ghost of Bill Hicks
    10:37 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    That pic is spot on….Lamb acts like it’s a crime against humanity for him to get called for a foul.

  13. I
    10:37 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    nice post…i think fouls might be a weird stat to use just cuz of end of the game fouls but the rebounding stat sure has some discrepancy

  14. Wildcards
    10:41 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    Miller is so disappointing in games like Georgia! He continues to go inside and not finish. However the lack of communication and helping out on defense leads to easy baskets by the other team. Our team needs a leader on the floor. Knight sometimes is that leader, but he disappears at times.

  15. Kevin Probus
    10:48 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    13 That’s a variable, variables don’t exist in BTI’s world. Everything is black and white to him.

    Team A is playing Team B, Team A averges 90 points a game while team B averages 75. Team A will score around 90 points and beat team B who will score around 75 according to BTI. Never mind that Team A may have played a weaker schedule or Team A may be VMI and Team B may be Ohio State. Those are the numbers and its all that BTI sees.

  16. Sheriff Buford T. Justice
    10:49 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    In one of the losses, the Cats were doomed by the BTI guarantee.

  17. Bryan the Intern
    10:51 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    16) I will say this: I am GUARANTEEING A KENTUCKY WIN OVER AUBURN TONIGHT!!! That should get me back on the right track.

  18. Pablo Picasso
    10:54 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    15) Dude, what is your problem? Are you seriously obsessed with BTI? This is like the 5th straight post you have made BTI comments. Get over it or whack off to his posts. But stop acting like a moron in the comments.

  19. Just saying
    11:03 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    so your saying when we play bad, were likely to lose?


  20. rockatao
    11:05 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    any team that shoots under 40% and gets outrebounded is likely to lose … nothing unique to UK here

  21. Lincoln Park
    11:06 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    BTI: On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the strongest in dislike, how much do you disdain UK fans?

  22. shadowboxer
    11:10 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    Well, in 33.33% of those 3 losses, you guaranteed a victory.

  23. Lolcats
    11:11 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    I think Terrence needs to get into the post and score more often. He motivates himself when he’s dunking it or just getting big down low (that’s what she said).

    In the second half of the non-conference games (and the game against Georgia), he kept shooting mid-range jumpers. I think he’s more focused on wanting to be a shooting PF in NBA and less about where the team he’s playing for right now needs him most – being a strong down low and helping out Jorts with rebounds.

  24. Al's IndiCats
    11:13 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    After watching the Georgia game Saturday I was really surprised to see that Terrance scored 24. Why was that? I guess it was because he shot what 3 three pointers? I feel like someone else said I think he needs to get into the blocks and grab a few rebounds. I think he’d be a MONSTER at it if he did, but maybe Cal doesn’t want him there so I’ll shut my pie hole.
    I’ve asked this before on other blogs but what would you all think if the Cats were to wear something with Enes number on it, in protesting the NCAA ruling on Enes. Something needs to said, and I know it’s a dead issue for many, but as we saw last night in the BCS…Bull Crap Spectacular they’re ruling was not and IS not justified

  25. mocha
    11:15 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    I’m gonna be honest, I do forecasting for a living so I’m used to crunching numbers all day……but these posts with percentages everywhere and drawn out sentences…just confuses the heck out of me. Very hard to follow.

  26. Sheriff Buford T. Justice
    11:16 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    17. Yeah, don’t think there is any danger of being wrong with that call.

  27. nashvillecatsfan
    11:24 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    The high number of fouls in losses is due to playing from behind late in games. Their fouling isn’t causing the losses. Playing from behind is causing an increase in fouling.

  28. ukman
    11:32 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    some real ground breaking stuff here…you shoot a low percentage, you get out rebounded, and you commit alot of fouls you LOSE the game! never would have imagined.

  29. getdeandredaniels
    11:40 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    The reason for bad rebounding is because we have no ENES!!! FREE ENES!!!!

  30. Laker Cat 18
    11:58 am January 11, 2011 Permalink

    Thanks for the info. I wasn’t aware that shooting bad, getting out-rebounded, and foul trouble led to losses. I’m sorry. After the terrible UK sports weekend, I just felt like being somewhat of a [email protected]$$.

  31. randy hardwick
    12:01 pm January 11, 2011 Permalink

    someone just suggested to me that those stats in the games that we lost were the direct result of being outplayed by the other team? novel idea. could that be??

  32. Always True Blue (ATB)
    2:22 pm January 11, 2011 Permalink

    Well, actually I think the first loss was fatigue. Plain and simple. We play UCONN fresh we will beat them 7 out of 10 times. I truly believe this.

    The UGA and UNC games were both winnable. Both played better than they have played all season. They played great defense and we let them have too many easy baskets.

    On the road, you expect the zebras to be against you. You have to be good enough to beat the other team and the zebras. I mean look at it like this. If Miller hits three short range shots or gets the foul call, or Lamb gets the foul call or they don’t call the foul on Jones. UK might have very well won this game. I mean UGA had a career at the FT line shooting 90%. If they shoot 70%, Kentucky wins.

    It was just a game we lost. We are 12-3 and the funny thing about it is that last years team were lucky they were not worse.

    We need Miller to keep playing with the fire he had and I am certain the shots will start to fall. Mark my words if he plays the same way against Auburn as he played against UGA he will have at least 16 points and 7 boards.

    We just got beat that’s all that can be said.

  33. fatcat
    4:19 pm January 11, 2011 Permalink

    Personally I think if we would have hit Georgia with a zone in the first half we would not have had to play comeback in the second… Georgia shot awful from long range… but we did not do anything to encourage that… some of Georgia early dificulties in the season were becuase Trey Thomkins was out with injury, ans was slow to return…So Georgia is a much better team now than they were early… If Georgia finds an outside Game they could actually win the East…I think they are much more athletic and physical than Florida… Florida has struggled to score a lot this year…also if you look at our TO stats in the losses they are a little bit out of whack with the averages as well… worst thing about Saturday is there were a lot of unforced TO… more walk calls against the cats than I have seen in a while…

  34. BlooBloodCat
    4:58 pm January 11, 2011 Permalink

    It’s Terrence Jones. He is the anchor and that is kind of a problem. If he can’t be in there, then fouls, rebounding and eventually points are liable to suffer. Not saying we can’t win without him. Just saying he is the key here.

  35. danny
    6:38 pm January 11, 2011 Permalink

    It’s that obvious bias whistle in 2 losses but a butt whipping on the 3rd.

  36. Kemp's Gold Chains
    10:51 pm January 11, 2011 Permalink

    My mind is blown. So you’re telling me that when UK shoots poorly, gets out rebounded, and gets into foul trouble that they are likely to lose. BTI you are a GENIUS. Now Coach Cal knows not to do any of these things and we will never lose again!!