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BTI’s Rants and Ramblings: Betting the Late Thursday Games

In case you missed it yesterday, here were my thoughts on the betting of the early games on Thursday.

Now, let’s take a look at the 8 late games on Thursday

8. UNLV vs 9. Northern Iowa (7:10, Oklahoma City)
Spread: UNLV -1.5
My Pick: UNLV, Northern Iowa has been fading the last month of this season, has no athleticism to speak of, and basically wants to keep games as low scoring as possible to compete.  They also have some big fat center that can make a 2-foot hook shot.  Anyway, I expect UNLV to jump out to a quick 5-10 point lead, and UNI not being able to muster enough 3-pointers to make a comeback.  But, if UNI can jump out early, the pace will slow to a crawl and they could pull this out.  I am taking the more talent team in this one though, UNLV 67-55
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1. Kentucky vs 16. East Tennessee St. (7:15, New Orleans)
Spread: Kentucky -20
My Pick: Kentucky, Since 2000, a total of 8 of the 1 vs 16 games have finished with less than a 20-point margin.  I really don’t understand this number because Villanova is also a 20-point favorite in their 2 vs 15 game, and they have been in a tailspin lately.  So, how does a better Kentucky team playing a worse seed also only get a 20-point spread?  As far as the game goes, ETSU has nobody in the post near the size of Cousins, Orton, or Patterson, added in to the fact that NOBODY can stop Wall, and I see somewhere between a 30-40 win for the Cats.  That is so long as the Cats come focused from the start of the game, which hasn’t always been the case.  Even a 75% effort still says to me the Cats would win by over 20 points. UK 94-58
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6. Marquette vs 11. Washington (7:20, San Jose)
Spread: Marquette -1.5
My Pick: Marquette, BET BIG ON THIS GAME.  I do not see a single scenario where Washington wins this game.  The Pac-10 is an absolute joke, and Marquette is one of the hottest teams in the country.  They are a very effecient offense, and one of the best passing teams I have seen this season.  They play a small lineup, but Washington depends on its guards as well.  Isaiah Thomas is a really solid guard for the Huskies, but they have nothing else that makes me think they could make a run at this game.  I guess some people will say that since the game is in California, that why the Huskies have a chance, and I would tell you that if the Spanish National Team came and played me and 4 other KSR bloggers in a game, they would still kill us.  You know why?  Because they are significantly better.  Marquette 78-60.
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3. Georgetown vs 14. Ohio (7:25, Providence)
Spread: Georgetown -13.5
My Pick: Georgetown, I love the Hoyas in this tournament and think they have a legit shot at beating Kansas and making the Final Four.  But, I do think this number is pretty high.  I could see a small letdown after a good Big East run, and Ohio seems to be peaking at the right time.  They have no chance to win this game, but they very well could cover.  I ended up betting Georgetown because Ohio was still the 8th best team in the MAC.  And I doubt they have anyone that can handle Greg Monroe in the post.  Georgetown 78-64
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1. Kansas vs 16. Lehigh (9:30, Oklahoma City)
Spread: Kansas -26
My Pick: Kansas, Kansas has been taking alot of criticism of being in the toughest bracket, and having all these teams who could knock them off and blah blah blah.  People forget THEY HAVE MORE TALENT THAN ANYBODY.  I don’t care about the other top teams in their bracket.  They only have to play two of them to get to the Final Four because their first two games will be cake.  Point being, I think Lehigh is due for a beating as Kansas is off to show they are the tournament favorite and on a mission.  Kansas 104-59
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8. Texas vs 9. Wake Forest (9:35, New Orleans)
Spread: Texas-4
My Pick: Texas (I guess), I really have no idea how this one is going to play out.  Texas has Damion James and Dexter Pittman but no point guard.  Wake Forest has Al-Farouq Aminu and some other decent talent.  But, both teams have likely underacheived so it’s anybody’s guess who will win this game.  I guess I pick Texas because they have played a tougher schedule and if both teams showed up focused, Texas has the most talent and a slight coaching advantage in Rick Barnes.  I expect the Longhorns to cover with a couple late free throws.  Texas 85-80
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3. New Mexico vs 14. Montana (9:40, San Jose)
Spread: New Mexico -9
My Pick: New Mexico, Really like this pick because people may not realize that Montana was down 20 at the half of the Big Sky title game to Weber State.  All they needed was a ridiculous half of scoring from Anthony Johnson to squeak by Weber St. by a point.  New Mexico is unlikely to let Johnson do the same thing to them.  The Lobos have 29 wins against a very good schedule and have been overlooked as a Final Four contender.  They also have a coach with tournament success in Steve Alford and a balanced scoring attack.  New Mexico 72-52
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6. Tennessee vs 11. San Diego St. (9:45, Providence)
Spread: Tennessee -2.5
My Pick: San Diego St., There are only 8 coaches in the field of 65 with a national title, and Steve Fischer is one of them.  He went to 3 Final Fours (unofficially) at Michigan and made a surprising run through the Mountain West tournament.  Tennessee, on the other hand, got spanked all around the court by Kentucky.  I just really like the way the Aztecs are playing right now.  They force teams into their style of play, they play extrememly well in late game situations, and I don’t think Tennessee has guys with those same qualities.  I truly think UT was demoralized by the UK loss and recovery is not something these guys will do well.  The game will be close, low scoring, and an Aztec win.  San Diego St 61-58

Article written by Bryan the Intern