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A 2012 Southeastern Conference Football Prediction

I stumbled upon an article projecting the final standings of the 2012 SEC Football Season based on the schedules that were released a couple of weeks ago. Its early, I know, but it can’t hurt to look a couple months down the road to season that will define Coach Phillips’ tenure at UK.

The author of the article, Bill Connelly, based his predictions on two things. First, he took into account the results of the 2011 season. With the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M to SEC schedules next year, there isn’t much of a history with the current teams in the conference and the former Big 12 schools. That leads Connelly to use the 2011 season and a combination of his second basis, individual team football rankings, to reach his predictions. These rankings come from the Football Outsiders, a statistic analysis website that ranks teams on practically every category you can think of, both offensively and defensively. Based off Kentucky’s 5-7 season it’s no surprise they finished 89th in the nation. Do I think there were 88 teams better than UK last year? No, I think they should be higher on the list. Most of the teams above the Wildcats don’t play a brutal SEC schedule is my main reasoning.

Let’s take a look at Kentucky’s 2012 schedule (from ukathletics.com):

 

Connelly went game by game through next season’s schedule and came up with this prediction:

He has the Cats losing all conference games next year, mostly notably a 45 point loss to Florida in Gainesville. He also sees Kentucky dropping an out-of-conference game too, presumably to Louisville. There will also be a rematch of UGA and LSU in the conference championship. Does Connelly have it right? How do you see the Cats finishing next year? The SEC?

You can read the entire article here.

 

Article written by Rashawn Franklin

72 Comments for A 2012 Southeastern Conference Football Prediction



  1. Cats11
    8:04 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Exactly right. As sad is that is. Wonder what the prediction would be if Leach was our head coach next season. What do you all think?



  2. BOURBON TOWN CAT FAN
    8:04 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    If we aren’t at least a .500 team Joker must go, if this happens he should go before the end of the season.



  3. BOURBON TOWN CAT FAN
    8:06 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Too bad we didn’t jump on a Leach hiring this year, now it’s too late with Washington St nabbing him up.



  4. Snapperlicious
    8:06 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    6-6



  5. Scott
    8:06 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Anyone wanna bet that matchup between Kentucky (0-7) and Tennessee (0-7) on 11/24 will be the SEC Game of the Week.



  6. blitzedanddazed
    8:06 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Please, no more post about UK football till August.



  7. Sleeveless Vest
    8:06 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Sadly, this is probably close to right. Although, TN may still suck next year the way they are going.



  8. FireMitch
    8:08 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Ace Whales enjoyed his trip so much, he committed to the Cards the day after the visit to UK. joker is awesome!!!



  9. BUcats
    8:12 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    The UK administration has abandoned UK football with the refusal to big money on upgrading facilities. Sadly I must abandon the team too if they can’t win ANY SEC games



  10. BUcats
    8:12 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    refusal to spend*



  11. Wow
    8:14 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    8) Wow!! That speaks volumes about Joker’s recruiting ability.



  12. barn
    8:15 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    10 a c will improve next year. UK probably not



  13. NJCat...
    8:19 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    It would be interesting to see what Mitch Barnhart’s expectations are for next year. If a 4-8 record (my prediction) is considered ‘on track’, then Mitch needs to go too.

    Here’s what we do folks, if the Cats can handle UL – hang with them, at least ’till the Miss St game. If they lose to UL, USC and Miss St., BOYCOTT the rest of the games. Mitch will not make a change until he starts losing money.

    Just really feel sorry for the players that they don’t have better leadership.



  14. cayts
    8:20 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    4-8. this is assuming cayts win only 1 of UofL, MissST, Vandy, @UT games. good enough for joker’s tenure to be reviewed.
    how will next season “define Coach Phillip’s tenure”?



  15. Air Raid
    8:20 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    13) I agree 100%. I don’t see winning the uofl game though. They return almost their entire team. It will be tough.



  16. Damn
    8:21 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    As a UK student, I would much rather see our football team win the SEC east then the basketball team go to the final four. Theres no debate in my mind that football is a much better sport than basketball.



  17. NotJimmyDykes
    8:24 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    I predict a joker contract extension…



  18. barn
    8:25 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    16–haha



  19. TheTruth
    8:27 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    charlie Strong is owning Joker. The Joke needs to hit the bricks.



  20. Tonydelksarms
    8:28 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Well no $hit…..didn’t need a computer program to figured this one out. I see this UT win as a last Minuit repreve from the governor, on ecxution day, he’s still getting the chair!



  21. CT Cat (jhd)
    8:29 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    #9 clearly you haven’t been listening AT ALL. The fact has been reiterated a good dozen times that the UK Administration has ZERO control over facilities funding. It must go through the KY Senate, and David Williams has said “No. Never. Nothing.” because he’s a tool. Get rid of Williams and our ability to issue bonds for football facilities magically comes back. It’s really that simple, so don’t blame UK or the now-defunct UKAA.

    Now, on the topic: sadly that looks about right. We wasted the best schedule we’ll ever see this year, and next year’s home/away split is bru.tal. Best chance at an SEC win is stealing one at home vs. MSU.



  22. Sick of all the MLK stuff
    8:29 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    16) YOU’RE AN IDIOT…..THIS IS A BASKETBALL SCHOOL, THIS ISN’T TEXAS OR ALABAMA.



  23. ButtCheeks
    8:31 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Joker and his recruiting smells like me.



  24. carlos toomer
    8:38 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    I don’t buy the clowns who say we’re too northern. (WVU & Va Tech are north of us) If we get to 4-2 after the Miss St game, we got another BBVA Compass bowl in our future! Yeah baby! Wooooooooooooo! Get rid of U of L! We might get back to the Music City bowl. Woooooooooo!



  25. Me
    8:40 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Are we all smarter than Mitch? Or is he smarter than us?

    How come we ALL anticipate an equally as bad or worse season next year. How come the “experts” agree with us? So what happens to Joker if we finish next year as bad next year? What happens to Mitch? Does Mitch have the ballz to put his money where his mouth is and say his job is tied to Jokers? So when us fans stop going to games after game 4 or 5 and the UKAA fires Joker, do we get a 2’fer and get rid of Mitch too?

    Could be a win / win for the fans and the overall program!



  26. lpool003
    8:40 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Would be funny to see how things will shake out next year. Wonder what the chances are that if joker does get fired we go after Charlie Strong haha. Probably wouldn’t jump at it but at least he would be in a real conference…



  27. Lloyd Christmas
    8:42 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Spot on.
    No more football, please.



  28. ebell55
    8:46 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Joker and staff have got ever stud out of Central over the last 6 years so what if Whales goes to UofL we have plenty of RBs we need off and Def linemen!!! Let’s go Cats!!!



  29. Who Dey
    8:46 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    I think he hit the nail on the head. No way we beat U of L or Tennessee next year. I wouldn’t be surprised at a Kent State, WKU, or Samford loss either. 2-10 may be more accurate.



  30. Mr Schwump
    8:47 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Y’all missed Strong’s choke job vs NC St didn’t you?



  31. Bluegrass
    8:48 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    I think UK should be concerned with Western Kentucky. To be honest, WKU should have beaten them last year and WKU has a pretty strong recruiting class coming in. Should be an interesting game.



  32. billy
    8:51 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    leach would leave wa st if uk calls next year! but me thinks we go 4-4 in sec with 8-4 record MR FOOTBALL TOWLES TOWLES TOWLES!!!! OH YEAH, ANYWAY WE BE HANGIN #8 IN RUPP and the funding will flow for reinvented RUPP!! GO C A T S!



  33. Air Raid
    8:54 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    We got the Central kids because the tards were kragthorped. It’s a well known fact that he didn’t like to recruit inner city kids. Plus, no one wanted to play for that idiot.



  34. carlos toomer
    8:54 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    #25 Mitch lost most credibility when he said he didn’t listen to criticism from the fan base. He lost all credibility when he said the average teams that went to music city/liberty/ compass bowl teams were better than the teams (before I was born) that went sugar/cotton/orange teams in the 50’s.



  35. CaptainMouser
    9:03 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    If Joker doesn’t win at least 3 SEC games, he is outta here. Him and his [email protected] dog.



  36. Keepitinyourpants
    9:05 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Since Joker hass a new kid (via Mary Ho Pareno), he will like stay close to home after he gets his walking papers. I look for Strong to give him a job as a video coord or something.



  37. MHFaulkner
    9:06 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Well – not like I didn’t expect that prediction to come out.

    We are set up to be one of the worst UK teams in history next year.

    A 2 win season isn’t out of question – and who knows, Kent State might beat us.



  38. Roll Tide
    9:09 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Roll Tide! I have had season tickets since 1974 and this is the worst program since Curry!
    My college won the national championship! I still love UK football but Barnhart and the Joke must go. The new UK president is a grad of Alabama and is not enamored with these two clowns. We may hope that he will help in exorcising Mitch & Joker.



  39. Tards
    9:12 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    After the Tards beat us by 30, the focus will turn to the basketball team and Shabazz baby!!!



  40. SeoulCat
    9:16 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    There is no way Vandy goes 5-3 in the SEC. No way.



  41. Computer Blue
    10:10 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Unfortunately, if I had to make a prediction this would be mine too concerning UK. However, I would love to be proven wrong and will happily admit my stupidity if that’s the case.



  42. thenamerobdigity
    10:24 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Vandy at 5-3 in the conference is flat out stupid.



  43. Mjp
    10:25 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    2-10
    Joker is fired like he shoul havebeen last yr
    Mary ho has twins
    Uk bball wins number 9



  44. Ghostofbearbryant
    10:26 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Of course our ass will get handed to us. When your beloved but average former coach won’t even maintain a presense around the program you know it’s a $h1t sandwich. The Todd-Barnhart reign of terror continues.



  45. Bald Guy
    10:45 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    6 or 7 wins… I think this team will have the talent to beat UofL and there are 6 capable wins on the schedule. I am a diehard fball fan and I can’t help but be optimistic about Joker and this team. I hear a lot of these complaints and I would be willing to bet my life that these are the same people that showed up on Gameday against FL and never returned again. True fans know what I’m talking about and support Joker. If the guy goes 2-10 for the next two seasons I may change my mind… if I didn’t I would be crazy. We are never going to be a Bama, LSU, or FL and I can accept that and if you have any sense at all you should be able to as well. We play in the SEC because it is the best conference in the country year after year and the $ keeps rolling in. I would rather have beaten LSU, BAMA, and UT than run through a CUSA or Big East to get mopped by an overrated ACC team any day of the week.



  46. MNCat
    10:50 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Yep. Those predictions sound about right, unfortunately. At least on paper, the one shot we have is against MSU at home. And even if they are the worst team in the SEC next year, we’ll play them in such a way that they look like a team full of Heisman Trophy candidates.



  47. Full Head of Hair Guy
    11:10 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    45: I’m a true fan, and I do not support Joker. I’m tired of people calling me a fair-weather fan because I dislike Joker. I will always support our team – but a lot of things Joker does on the field do not make sense to me. 4 wins MAX next year with Joker on our staff.



  48. southeastUKfan1
    11:13 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Kentucky projected 3-9, VANDERBILT slightly over-valued but projected 9-3. That tells me all I need to know about the direction of the program, barring a drastic improvement this off-season. Can Patrick Towles come in and save a floundering program? Can we keep him on his feet against this schedule? How do you replace Trevathan and Guy? Who stands out on this roster that can answer those questions? The UT win was awesome, I was there, but October 13, 2007 was a century ago when this program showed signs of “arriving.”



  49. jpgott2
    11:24 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    All I will say to those that think we can not compete in football, look at Vandy! Our facilities need some revamping, but until the state senate gets out of the way, and allows us some bonding, this will not occur. They love giving UL plenty, especially with the UL Athletic fund, even though their athletic department is not self-sufficient like UK’s! Yet, what we really need to turn it around, is a good young coach, like Vandy has done. He is recruiting fabulously with almost no historic success in football/ or facilities (has four legit 4-star recruits on the way), and has his teams actually competing with the rest of the SEC (DEVELOPS his players, and actually schemes his opponent).
    That is what UK needs, especially when you have a fan-base that has packed Commonwealth Stadium for teams that have underachieved on a continuous basis. We need a spark, and not some revolving marketing ploy.



  50. UK BABY
    11:28 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    i say we win 6 for sure



  51. cayts
    11:30 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    45-sorry, you’re wrong.
    we play 4 OOC games/yr against bad teams. if we only win 2 that means we’ll have lost to a kentst or wku or jackst; nothing to do with how tough the SEC is. and our sched was soft this year since we got to play 2-10 olemiss, 5-7 UT, 6-6 missst, 6-6 vandy, 6-6 UF.
    we would’ve been considered bad in the big10, big12, acc & sec and it probably won’t change next year….



  52. JPhelps
    11:51 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    Cats maybe win 4 again. I’m more perplexed with the fact that Franklin thinks there weren’t 88 teams better than us… 89 was friendly I thought.



  53. tshain
    11:55 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    I predict a loss to WKU in Lex. Wins over Kent State and Samford is all we’re going get away with. Maybe win over UT and that’s going out on a limb.



  54. ukadb
    11:56 pm January 16, 2012 Permalink

    52: Talent wise I agree with Franklin. Showing it on the field is another story.



  55. MattMeth
    12:14 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Who cares?! UK football??
    KSR should give us close face shots of the Cheerleaders!!!
    19 championships is a big deal, far more than farce football.



  56. MattMethMouth
    12:18 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    PLEASE!!!!
    never post Joker’s face again!!
    No more UK football
    please, please!



  57. joe
    12:50 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    what’s this about mary jo perino?



  58. rocky d
    1:01 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Who gives a rats ass about Football..I don’t care if they ever win another game..Joker sucks…Will not watch till he’s gone



  59. tear
    1:10 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    looks right to me 🙁



  60. UK
    1:20 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    You all are moronic if you think UK doesnt care about UK football.

    A 2-10 football team makes double what a final four basketball team does.

    The problem is UK is not a hotbed of talent. And even when we had our best class in Uk history, it is still 10th or so in the SEC. It is a slow climb of changing the perception that UK has in football.

    It is easy to have success for a year or two, but sustaining that in the SEC takes a lot of time. Immediate results wont happen.

    It starts be upsets, getting renewal back in the program, fans, and getting recruits we had no business getting.

    Here’s to hoping that starts to change.



  61. alabamaCAT
    2:32 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Joker has never been a head coach, at any level. Not even high school. There was no doubt by me that he had no chance of any success at KY. This is the SEC people. The best college football league. How can you expect a guy who has never been a head coach to win against the best teams in the country year in and year out. He needs to go and be a high school coach and learn basic skills and leadership before even trying to coach at a little college. The whole situation is hillariuos and sad at the same time.



  62. ukgrad2004
    4:12 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    I think 2-10 is extreme. 5-7 again is probably more realistic. As always, the UL game will set the tone for the rest of the year, and that one is almost always competitive. Get a victory at Papa John’s, and wow, suddenly we would likely be 3-0 heading into SEC play with winnable home games against MSU and Vandy on the horizon. Best guess from me is we win at least two in conference play and the outcome against UL will be the difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Anything better than 6-6 would be serious gravy.



  63. Aaron Craft's Rosacea
    7:43 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    5-7



  64. Count Them
    7:43 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    Loss
    Win
    Loss
    Humiliating Loss
    Beatdown Loss
    U of L v Providence Loss
    Crushing Loss
    Devastating Loss
    Smacked Around Loss
    Nerd Beating Loss
    Win
    Hair Pulling Contest

    2-10 We Pose to be SEC



  65. SteveM
    9:02 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    UK does not play football. Please give us more coverage of the rifle team or cheerleading squad.



  66. Raazoul
    9:12 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    How are you people going to hate on Mitch Barhart? EVERY other sport is as good as it’s ever been! Because our shitty football team is STILL shitty you people want his head? Morons, we CAN NOT WIN AT KENTUCKY! What part of the last 30 years have you people been missing? We produce like 6 D-1 players a year from Kentucky and they go to other, better schools. Florida and Georgia produce hundreds…. Big time donors DO NOT give money to football, if you don’t like it donate a few million… The state will NOT bond the football team to secure a big time loan. So complain all you want, but unless we leave the SEC (which will never happen) we are never gonna win our conference or really ever come close.



  67. Glasgow Wildcat
    10:48 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    I agree he hit the nail on the head so to speak. I just can’t see us winning that many games next year.



  68. OakRidge_Cat
    11:00 am January 17, 2012 Permalink

    *sigh*



  69. squirrel
    1:08 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    UK will LOSE to WKU, which will spark a midseason firing of Joker Phillips. WKU 12-UK 10. You heard it hear first folks.



  70. IGiveuP
    2:32 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    #66- Barnfart has had to only make four major (income producing) coaching decisions…Brooks, BCG, Joker and Coach Cal. So, tell me…(other than PaPa whom he worked for at OR)how’s Barnfart’s record so far? He HAS to go along with Joker…maybe they can get a buy-one-get-one Free UHaul?



  71. Dark Helmet
    4:02 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    #69,#53, #31 WKU will have a tough time adjusting to life without Bobby Rainey, but everybody else on their team will be back. UK should win they have more talent top to bottom. But WKU has some high major state of Florida talent all over the field. If WKU can put together any kind of an offense UK should be on upset watch. WKU’s defense will be legit.



  72. Raazoul
    4:37 pm January 17, 2012 Permalink

    #70 – Well I would say you have to give him credit for all the other sports as well, he gets the blame for mistakes he should get the credit too. More importantly, he made ONE bad decision, BCG. Who at the time was not a bad decision, certainly not as bad as it turned out to be. But he fixed it very well don’t you think? We now have the best coach in America and the Best team for the last 3 years. Joker Phillips was a MUST hire. You people who don’t understand that just won’t understand. Barnhart couldn’t let Joker go to Notre Dame just at the chance to hire a coach like Leach who we already fired!!! Who the Hell do you think we could get? This argument is sooo old. NO ONE wants to come here except “damaged goods”. You want him to take a chance on an NCAA violation so we can lose our football income? For what? MAYBE a 8 win season? UK can NEVER do better than 8 wins, maybe a miracle to get 9, but it would literally take a full blown miracle. Brooks was a great coach, got this team to as many wins as it will ever get, 7 or 8. If you think Nick Saban is coming your drunk and if you think Mike Leach is a homerun, the jury is still out. One thing it’s not out on, that he’s a cheat/rule breaker. Barnhart gave us Brooks (Best UK football coach in 50 years) and Calipari (Will be the second greatest coach UK has ever had). He will give Joker the chance he deserves than boot him if he cant produce. But don’t be fooled into thinking we will EVER be better than 5th or 6th in our conference. LOOK AT OUR RECORD FOR THE LAST 50 YEARS!!!!! How can you blame Mitch?