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Can Kentucky go OVER its projected win total?


The online sportsbook BetDSI released its regular season win totals for the 14 teams of the Southeastern Conference and the line for Kentucky’s 2018 wins was set at six. A push would mean a third straight bowl game, but you can’t bet on a push; so, are you going over or under?

Let’s look ahead at the schedule to make the safest the play.

 


KENTUCKY FOOTBALL 2018 SCHEDULE


Central Michigan
September 1

Central Michigan went 8-5 in 2017 for a second-place finish in the MAC, and earned an invite to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, where it lost to Wyoming, 14-37.

But with several key departures, the Chippewas are expected to fall short of a fifth-straight bowl game and have a down year in John Bonamego’s fourth season. Throw in the fact a brand new QB will be making his debut against Kentucky, and the Wildcats should take care of business in the Kroger Field opener.

Expectation: WIN


@ Florida
September 8

It’s Florida.

We know the drill.

Expectation: LOSS


Murray State
September 15

Kentucky will host Murray State in only the second-ever meeting between the two schools. The Cats won the first clash, 37-6, in 2003, and should have no problem beating the OVC’s eighth-placed team again in 2018.

Expectation: WIN


Mississippi State
September 22

Mississippi State has a new head coach for the first time in nine years, so it’s hard to say what we’ll see in 2018. But Joe Moorhead has 18 returning starters from a team that went 9-4 with a bowl win over Louisville a year ago, giving him one of the most experienced teams in the country. It helps that he has 10 starters back on the offensive side of the ball, where he shined as Penn State’s offensive coordinator last season, which ultimately earned him the job in Starkville. Mississippi State should be pretty good in his inaugural season.

Expectation: Dog Fight (and probably a loss)


South Carolina
September 29

Kentucky has won four straight against the Gamecocks after losing 13 of 14 before that. Will Muschamp returns a solid roster that won nine games and beat Michigan in the Outback Bowl, so it’s probably time for South Carolina to get back in the win column against the Cats, unfortunately.

Or maybe the streak will continue?

Expectation: Coin Flip


@ Texas A&M
October 6

Texas A&M will host Kentucky in College Station for the first time ever this coming season, and Big Blue Nation’s traveling fan base is excited to make the trip. But with Jimbo Fisher taking over the Aggies, the trip to see A&M’s Kyle Field may not give us much to smile about when it’s over.

Expectation: LOSS


Vanderbilt
October 20

If you’re going to be a competitive program in the SEC, you have to beat Vanderbilt every year. Kentucky’s won three of four, including the last two, and will need to keep the wins coming to avoid disaster.

Losing to Vanderbilt is unacceptable, especially at home.

Expectation: WIN (must-win)


@ Missouri
October 27

Kentucky beat Missouri early in 2017, but if the game had been toward the end of the year, it might’ve been a different story. The Tigers eventually got it rolling after a 1-5 start, winning six straight to close out the season.

Unfortunately, Mizzou returns Drew Lock, an NFL prospect at quarterback, for a senior season, and one of the SEC’s best backfields.

Expectation: Will be tough to win


Georgia
November 3

Georgia is a national championship contender again after giving away last year’s title game. The Cats do get to play the Bulldogs at Kroger Field this year, but home field advantage shouldn’t make much of a difference in the end.

Expectation: LOSS


@ Tennessee
November 10

Kentucky hasn’t won in Neyland Stadium since the Reagan administration, before I was even born, so it’d be crazy to predict anything but a loss. That being said, Tennessee sucked last year and the Vols have a new first-time head coach in Jeremy Pruitt. Dare I say it’s a toss-up?

Expectation: Close game


Middle Tennessee State
November 17

After seven straight conference games in the middle of the schedule, Kentucky will get to catch its breath against a non-conference opponent when Middle Tennessee comes to town. The Blue Raiders had a pretty solid 2017, but Kentucky should earn a victory in the home finale in Lexington.

Expectation: WIN


@ Louisville
November 24

With Lamar Jackson off to the NFL, thankfully, Louisville’s offense will fall into the hands of Juwan Pass, another highly-touted, dual-threat QB. He’ll have a lot of weapons at his disposal, but we won’t know what he does with them until we see him in action. Pass could make a Louisville a very good team, or the Cards could struggle if he isn’t ready to shine.

Expectation: Anything can happen


ASSUMED WINS: Central Michigan, Murray State, Vanderbilt, Middle Tennessee

ASSUMED LOSSES: Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia

GOTTA WIN TWO TO BOWL, THREE FOR THE OVER: Mississippi State (H), South Carolina (H), Missouri (A), Tennessee (A), Louisville (A)

 

I think it’ll be tough to win seven games, even if Kentucky is a better team in 2018.

Therefore, I will be staying away from the OVER, although I do think a six-win bowl season is the most likely scenario. Nice line, Vegas.

Article written by Drew Franklin

I can recite every line from Forrest Gump, blindfolded. Follow me on Twitter: @DrewFranklinKSR

31 responses to “Can Kentucky go OVER its projected win total?”

  1. FlySoup

    Agree 100%. Most likely scenario is 6 wins but I could see 7 with wins coming at home vs south Carolina and at Tennessee and at Missouri.

  2. Catcasey1

    Not with stoops running the ship

    1. UK Big Board Update

      FOH, troll.

    2. My Dixie Wrecked

      What’s the H stand for?

  3. mothandras

    I think we take a step back in 2018.. most of us are looking for a step forward.. but we are still rebuilding and lost most of what made us decent last year. Until we have a stable QB coming back after a 6-7 win season I don’t see us doing anything much in the tough SEC. I say 5-6 wins.. with some tough close loses along the way.

  4. jahanc2uky

    You give UT, UL, A&M, and Florida too much credit.. UL is a mist win, with our D and their non Lamar QB. This is an easy ober beat. Name the rate Drew and I will gibe you the 6.5 over/under.

  5. Duuuuuude

    I am going to go on record as being more positive than negative. We return the same D Backs, an improved D line, the same O line which is our strength, and probably an improved running game with Rose coming on. While we all admire Stephan Johnson, I don’t think we will take a step back at Quarterback. If they can protect the ball we could have an improvement there. The only phase where we probably won’t be as strong is in the kicking game.

    While we are busy sweating over South Carolina and Missouri, I believe those are definitely winnable. I thinking we win 8 games this year and 9 to be optimistic. That should be our expectation.

    1. KYcats11

      Agree with you. A step back would be dissappinting. We won 7 games last year and are returning most of our players, and have the best RB in the SEC I predict 8 at the least.

    2. TBW3011

      No chance we take a step back at QB. We could’ve done historic things the last 2 years with anything more than the mediocre to poor QB play we had. People are confusing a good kid with a good QB.

  6. dylangeorge7988

    I’m the always optimistic Football fan, so take what I’m saying with a huge grain of salt.

    I see 8 maybe 9 wins. I mean let’s call it what it is. We have a solid defense returning. One of the most underrated O Lines and Running-backs in the SEC and the potential of having a more dynamic and athletic player at QB.

    Like Vince Morrow says: “What we didn’t get any better?”

    It’s non sense.

    W v. CMU
    L @ FLA (It has to happen one day. I bet this game will be really close)
    W v. Murray
    W v. MSST
    W v. SCAR
    L @ TAMU (Sorry but the Cats are going to sneak up on the Aggies)
    W v. Vandy
    L @ Mizzou
    W v. Georgia (I’m calling afield rush in Lexington)
    L @ UT
    W v. MTSU
    W @ UL

    1. Duuuuuude

      Have to agree.

  7. dylangeorge7988

    At the end of the season I believe we’ll look back on a record that could have easily been 12-0 with close losses to Florida, Texas AM, Mizzou and UT

    1. jaws2

      You sir, are out of your mind!

    2. mothandras

      Maybe easily could have been an 0-12 season, Nick Saban and his Alabama Team couldn’t go 12-0 playing as UK in 2018.

    3. callitlikeiseeit

      He is saying we go 8-4, we could do that. All depends on the QB play we get. Most other positions seem to be solid but sadly the QB position is probably the most important part and is our biggest unknown. I think to get to 8-4, or better, we have to have Wilson as QB and he has to avoid turnovers. He does not have to be a do it all, but he provides a deep threat and he has the wheels that often hurt our D.

  8. luke_emberton

    it’s ridiculous if we can’t beat Missouri Miss State UT and SC I mean cmon those teams aren’t that good get 3 of those 4 maybe you can steal one from Florida or Texas A&M there’s no excuse for not winning at least 7 games if we’re supposedly better and have more talent then don’t make excuses for not winning at least 7 games

  9. Jiminy Crickets

    All this talk about how we should beat USC and miss st. You guys realize Miss st DESTROYED us last year, and returns almost their entire roster (they also beat UL right after they drilled us). Most polls have Miss st in top 15, and USC in top 20-25 range. Meanwhile we are typically ranked around the 60s in most. UT and Vandy are ranked below us, but we play at UT. 6 wins is about right.

    1. Jiminy Crickets

      Miss st beat us 45-7 in case people forgot

    2. Bill Selfs Hair Piece

      I agree MSU isn’t a likely win, but I’ll remind you SCAR was a solid favorite over us last year and we not only beat them, but I’d argue dominated (although the score was not indicative of this). Ranking has nothing to do with it. You could say the same exact thing about UofL (as you’re saying about Miss St) when we beat them on their own turf 2 years ago.

  10. Rick_S

    5 maybe 6w’s…,Will take some time for the new QB

  11. Duuuuuude

    Remember that last year, we had no #2 option at running back. Dorian Baker could not play. CJ Conrad did not play. Jordan Jones did not play. Stephan Johnson was playing crippled.

    We are older, stronger, and deeper in nearly every way. If our QB can manage the game and effectively deliver the ball to the play makers without turning it over we should be pretty good.

    1. chris43

      I agree that depending on QB play we’ll either hover in/out of the top 25 or we’ll be a 5-6 win team. The Qb doesn’t need to “win” the games for us just not lose them and occasionally make some plays to keep the defense honest.

    2. callitlikeiseeit

      That is why I think Wilson is the guy. People forget he has only been here a few weeks so Hoak has a huge advantage but there was not much difference in the Spring game. Wilson gives us a deep threat passing game and could score a TD on any given scramble. He needs to really learn the system and get the timing with the WR’s by August and we could be very good. Agree with others that MSU and USC are pretty good teams but both are at home. Mizzou on the road is tough so we will have to get pressure on Lock and the DB’s will have to be great but they are capable. 8-9 wins is possible, I don’t see us beating UF just because we never do, UGA is a loss although we did play them well for 2.5 quarters last year at UGA and the year before they had to kick a FG with no time left to beat us. U6 should be a win this year, they are in the same boat as us with an unknown QB situation.

  12. Luether

    Mu sources say 5 and 7…

    1. UK Big Board Update

      Yeah, Louisville is going to suck without Lamar.

  13. BBNBRIAN

    5 win season if we’re lucky. You can have all the talent in the world ON the field, but it means nothing with Stoops proven track record of “choking”. I’m not dogging our players, they looked great at the spring game – especially AJ Rose – it is the coaching staff that has a lot to prove to me.

  14. makeitstop

    We will know what kind of coach Stoops is after this year. Had some brain freezes last year… I’m still putting the furniture back together after the uncovered receivers against Florida. But he returns veterans at all key positions but QB and they are HIS veterans in their 3rd year with the OC/QC and second year w an improved defensive staff. The games at UT and UF should NOT be assumed losses, both were horrible last year. Horrible. New coaches. @U of L and Missouri both imminently winnable. What spooks people is hard home games. Well, good, well coached teams beat better teams at home. Georgia is way better, MSU is not 45-7 better but they are better, and USC may be, too but u can’t give away 3 of 4 SEC games at home, u must at least split no matter how tough they are. And we should split on the road if the QB position delivers. Not just “not hurting” us. We aren’t ‘Bama – the QB must win games not be a neutral. But 4-4 in the SEC would leave us with 7-8 wins and if we can actually not implode in a bowl game that’s positive yardage for the program. Just keep stringing together 7-8 win years and u can turn the corner IF u are getting better as a coach. Big year for Stoops and Gran to show they belong in top half of SEC staffs which is commensurate with their pay.

    1. Ol Jim

      My living room has yet to recover from the Florida game too. My coffee table will wobble for the rest of the time that I own it after the 2nd uncovered brain fart. However, I still think that Stoops is a good coach. He’s learning but this season will show just how much he has learned in his tenure here. I still think Stoops is the man for the job and I’m hoping for 7 wins this season barring any major injuries before the season.

  15. BluesBrother

    5 wins at best.

  16. notFromhere

    Yes. UK FOOTBALL CAN GO OVER ITS PROJECTED WIN TOTAL, AS THEY’VE DONE MANY MANY YEARS.

  17. Wade

    How dare y’all write in a loss to Florida