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Sagarin, KenPom predictions for the rest of the season

Kentucky is currently 15-3 overall, 5-1 in conference play. What will that record look like at the end of the regular season?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a time machine, but I do have access to the Sagarin and KenPom ratings, both which include predictions for the rest of the season. Obviously, the chances these numbers turn out to be right isn’t great, but it’s a rainy day, so let’s have some fun and look ahead.

Sagarin Predictor: 27-4, 16-2 in conference play

Kentucky’s current Sagarin Predictor rating is 89.14, ninth best in the country. The home advantage is 3.1. Using those numbers and the numbers of Kentucky’s opponents, the Sagarin Predictor has the Cats finishing the regular season 27-4, the only loss being at Tennessee.

Sat, Jan 26 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Kansas 89.61
Tue, Jan 29 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Vanderbilt 82.31
Sat, Feb 2 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Florida 88.82
Tue, Feb 5 HOME Kentucky 92.24 South Carolina 78.24
Sat, Feb 9 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Mississippi State 88.25
Tue, Feb 12 HOME Kentucky 92.24 LSU 85.66
Sat, Feb 16 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Tennessee 91.03
Tue, Feb 19 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Missouri 82.18
Sat, Feb 23 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Auburn 88.38
Tue, Feb 26 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Arkansas 81.24
Sat, Mar 2 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Tennessee 94.13
Tue, Mar 5 AWAY Kentucky 89.14 Ole Miss 86.33
Sat, Mar 9 HOME Kentucky 92.24 Florida 85.72

That’s pretty much a dream scenario and one I’d pay good money to see happen. Unfortunately, there is no way to put a point value on “Everybody’s Super Bowl,” so you have to think the Cats have more slip ups than on the road vs. the current No. 1 team in the country.

KenPom: 23-8, 13-5 in conference play

The Cats are currently No. 8 in the KenPom ratings. KenPom also predicts future games and team’s final records, but the formula for the final records is based off cumulative probabilities, so in some cases — like this one — the numbers don’t match. I’ll be honest, I don’t really understand that, but KenPom’s projected record for Kentucky is 23-8, 13-5 in conference play. That would have them finishing third in the SEC, which could mean the late game Friday night at the SEC Tournament, depending on tiebreakers (gag):

Team Overall Conference Projected
Tennessee 16-1 5-0 15-3
LSU 14-3 4-0 13-5
Kentucky 15-3 5-1 13-5
South Carolina 10-8 5-1 9-9
Mississippi 14-4 4-2 11-7
Florida 11-7 3-3 10-8
Alabama 12-6 3-3 9-9
Auburn 13-5 2-3 10-8
Mississippi St. 14-4 2-3 9-9
Missouri 10-6 1-3 6-12
Arkansas 10-7 1-4 7-11
Georgia 9-8 1-4 5-13
Texas A&M 7-10 1-5 5-13
Vanderbilt 9-8 0-5 3-15

KenPom’s individual game projections are much rosier, showing Kentucky only losing two more times, at Florida and at Tennessee (the far right column is percentage chance to win):

Sat, Jan 26 HOME Kentucky 74 Kansas 69 65%
Tue, Jan 29 AWAY Kentucky 75 Vanderbilt 66 78%
Sat, Feb 2 AWAY Kentucky 64 Florida 65 50%
Tue, Feb 5 HOME Kentucky 82 South Carolina 66 92%
Sat, Feb 9 AWAY Kentucky 72 Mississippi St. 71 51%
Tue, Feb 12 HOME Kentucky 78 LSU 71 74%
Sat, Feb 16 HOME Kentucky 75 Tennessee 74 51%
Tue, Feb 19 AWAY Kentucky 69 Missouri 63 71%
Sat, Feb 23 HOME Kentucky 76 Auburn 71 68%
Tue, Feb 26 HOME Kentucky 79 Arkansas 66 88%
Sat, Mar 2 AWAY Kentucky 78 Tennessee 71 27%
Tue, Mar 5 AWAY Kentucky 73 Ole Miss 71 57%
Sat, Mar 9 HOME Kentucky 68 Florida 61 73%

Personally, I see two or three more losses for the Cats. One will undoubtedly come vs. Tennessee, probably at Thompson-Boling, and another at Mississippi State or Ole Miss. Add in a loss to Kansas on Saturday night or a random off night somewhere along the way and that feels about right; however, with the way this team’s building momentum right now, you never know.

How do you think Kentucky will finish the season? Pick their final record below:



(Photo via Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images North America)

Anthony Davis Could Now Miss 2-4 Weeks

(Photo via Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images North America)

After it was previously announced that New Orleans Pelicans superstar Anthony Davis would miss 1-2 weeks with a sprained finger, there is now fear surrounding the former No. 1 overall pick that the injury might be worse than initially thought.

According to Shams Charania of The Athletic, Davis’ new agent, Rich Paul, said that his client is set to a hand specialist and there is a growing suspicion that the injury could actually be a fracture to his left index finger, which could keep him on the shelf for up to four weeks.

Davis has been battling a multitude of minor injuries throughout the season but has yet to miss more than two games in a row until now. The MVP candidate is averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists while recording 32 double-doubles out of a possible 41 games.

Unfortunately, the Pelicans sit near the bottom of the Western Conference standings with a record of 22-25. After starting the season 4-0, they have not had another four-game winning streak since and several injuries to key role players have decimated any potential chemistry. The injury to Davis is sure to be the most dramatic yet.

The Pelicans have a heap of games coming against quality Western Conference opponents as we inch closer to the trade deadline and All-Star break. The trade deadline is already less than two weeks away and – if Davis isn’t traded and I wouldn’t expect him to be – we could expect him to return after the All-Star weekend in mid-February. I think the Pelicans will definitely be listening to trade offers, though, especially if the Pelicans really start to crumble in the next two weeks without Davis, but they’d need a massive return to be willing to let him go.

Get well soon, AD.


Follow me on Twitter: @ZackGeoghegan


(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

BBNBA: Towns shines, Booker fights

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Good morning, folks. Devin Booker and former Lousiville Cardinal Gorgui Dieng refuse to let the in-state rivalry stay in Kentucky. Let’s talk NBA.

RECAP

[23-24] Timberwolves – 118 @ [11-38] Suns – 91

  • During Tuesday night’s obliteration of the Phoenix Suns courtesy of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Devin Booker and Gorgui Dieng got into a bit of a scuffle in the middle of the third quarter with Phoenix down 20. Things quickly escalated and then took a weird turn.

  • It will never not be funny to watch giant grown men desperately try to escape the clutches of another man who just wants to go home and spend time with his wife. After the game, Dieng said he was only trying to exchange jerseys with Booker. Dieng must have really wanted that jersey, too, because his run to the locker room was the hardest I’ve seen him work all season.
  • The Suns lost – again – and both players were promptly ejected following the scuffle. Booker managed 14 points in 24 minutes before being tossed. For Minnesota, Karl-Anthony Towns led both his team and the BBNBA in scoring with 25 points on 10-15 shooting in addition to 18 rebounds and seven assists. It was Towns’ 30th double-double of the season as the Wolves won handily.

Other notes

  • The Sacramento Kings rested three of their starters against the Toronto Raptors (who were also resting Kawhi Leonard) as De’Aaron Fox, Nemanja Bjelica, and Iman Shumpert all sat out the Kings’ second game of a back-to-back. Sacramento would lose on the road, 120-105, as Willie Cauley-Stein added 10 points and six rebounds. Fox was listed out with a sore right toe, but his absence was due more to the coaching staff wanting to keep him in shape as they take on the second half of the schedule.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander contributed eight points on 4-14 shooting for the Los Angeles Clippers in a 98-106 loss to the Dallas Mavericks.
  • Check out the full stat sheet below.

STATISTICS

PlayerResult PointsFG (3FG)Reb.Ast.StealsBlocksTOs+/-Mins.
Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)118-91 W @ PHX2510-15 (2-4)187212+2031
Devin Booker (PHX)91-118 L vs. MIN146-11 (0-1)34114-2024
Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC)105-120 L @ TOR104-5 (0-0)62000-624
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (LAC)98-106 L @ DAL84-14 (0-2)11010+520
Patrick Patterson (OKC)123-114 W vs. POR62-2 (2-2)00000+814
Nerlens Noel (OKC)123-114 W vs. POR00-1 (0-0)32200+1311
De'Aaron Fox (SAC)105-120 L @ TORDNP-Rest----------------
Skal Labissiere (SAC)105-120 L @ TORDNP-CD----------------
Hamidou Diallo (OKC)123-114 W vs. PORDNP-CD----------------

TONIGHT IN THE NBA

7:00: Raptors @ Pacers

7:30: Cavaliers @ Celtics

7:30: Magic (Briscoe) @ Nets

7:30: Clippers (Gilgeous-Alexander) @ Heat (Adebayo)

7:30: Rockets (Knight-out) @ Knicks (Kanter, Knox)

8:00 (ESPN): Spurs @ 76ers

8:00: Hawks (Poythress) @ Bulls

8:00: Hornets (Kidd-Gilchrist, Monk) @ Grizzlies

8:00: Pistons @ Pelicans (Davis-out, Miller, Randle)

10:30 (ESPN): Nuggets (Lyles, Murray, Vanderbilt) @ Jazz


Follow me on Twitter: @ZackGeoghegan


Devin Booker, Gorgui Dieng rush to tunnel for more after ejections

Devin Booker, Gorgui Dieng rush to tunnel for more after ejections

The Kentucky-Louisville basketball rivalry boiled over into the NBA last night when Devin Booker and Gorgui Dieng were separated and then ejected from the Suns-Timberwolves game. It all began when the former Cardinal caught the former Wildcat with an elbow, then ended with both players rushing out separate tunnels to meet in a back hallway for more.

Obviously we side with Booker here, but I’ll admit that I love Dieng telling reporters he simply wanted to swap jerseys with his rival.

I wish we could see more UK-Louisville beef in the NBA but Louisville is incapable of getting its players to the NBA.


KSR Show Thread 1/23: Recapping the Cats’ win

Matt Jones, Ryan Lemond and Shannon The Dude are on for the next two hours to recap Kentucky’s big win over Mississippi State. Tune in to hear what they have to say about the game and what’s ahead for the team. And more.

Join in on the fun by calling (502) 571-1080 or send a text to the KSR Texting Machine at (859) 300-3264.

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BIG BLUE BUCKETS: 20% off at the KSR Shop!

BIG BLUE BUCKETS: 20% off at the KSR Shop!

With UK’s win against Mississippi State, the KSR Shop and Kentucky Branded are here with their Big Blue Buckets sale! Head to ShopKSR.com to receive 20% off your purchase. Stock up on some new KSR gear, UK tees, hats, and more!

Sale ends at midnight.  Go Cats!

[KSR Shop]