Kentucky Sports Radio
[Moderated by Matt Jones, Drew Franklin and Tyler Thompson]
[Moderated by Matt Jones, Drew Franklin and Tyler Thompson]
Everyone in the national media is heaping praise on Nerlens Noel right, with very good reason. Nerlens showed the nation what Kentucky fans have quickly come to realize: he’s one of, if not the best defender in the country right now. Andy Kennedy called Nerlens’ play the difference in the game, despite him only scoring two points, something that ESPN NBA Insider Chad Ford may lead to him being the number one pick in this year’s draft:
On Nerlens’ performance last night:
Maybe the best 2 point performance I’ve ever seen. Those 12 blocks were ridiculous. It was like he was a NBA player against a high school JV team. Noel has 32 blocks in his last 4 games! He’s averaging 8 bpg in his last four in the SEC. That’s crazy. He’s currently on pace to record more block than Anthony Davis did as a freshman. I know he’s been seen as a disappointment by many … but to me he’s played exactly as advertised — elite defender, raw offensively. I know we obsess about offense when talking about draft prospects, but NBA scouts and teams care equally about defense and Noel has the potential to be a contender for Defensive Player of the Year someday in the NBA. That alone makes him worthy of being considered for the No. 1 pick in this draft.
Predictably, Nerlens sits atop Ford’s NBA Big Board for yet another week, and Ford says the Cavaliers would probably take him first in the draft if they get the number one pick. What about the other Cats? Ford says that while Archie Goodwin, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley-Stein aren’t ready, because of the weak draft, they could end up being lottery picks. Here’s what Ford says each needs to improve their stock:
The issue is that Goodwin, Poythress and Cauley-Stein probably aren’t ready. Goodwin needs to add a three pointer to his repertoire (he’s 1-for-17 from three in his last 8 games), Poythress is still figuring out what he is offensively and needs to get more consistent, Cauley-Stein has the potential to be a Top 5 pick next year if he stays. I’m not sure any of them will stay with Calipari’s elite incoming freshman class, but if those three did, I think they could all help both their draft stock and their NBA careers.
It hurts to think of the players’ NBA stock after such an exciting win, but the inevitabilities do loom on the horizon. Aside from Nerlens, whom we need to cherish while we can, who will go and who will stay?
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January 30th, 2013 at 3:34 pm
The question should be, out of the 4 how many will be in the D-league next year if they go pro after this year
January 30th, 2013 at 3:36 pm
You are beginning to see Ford backtrack a little bit with these guys…dont be surprised if you see everyone return.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:37 pm
Goodwin, Poythress for sure. Thats why they are here. Lets not kid ourselves. WCS returns next season with Wiltjer to go along side the incoming class and we will be friggin awesome!
January 30th, 2013 at 3:37 pm
Except Noel
January 30th, 2013 at 3:37 pm
They are all gone, no question.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:40 pm
We’re talking about a year where Dylan..er, Greg…er, Doug McDermott is projected as POY.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:40 pm
Shrug off the perception that his freshman season is a disappointment !??!?!?!
WTF ?!?!??! His freshman season has been AWESOME and it has gotten BETTER each game. His DEFENSE almost single handedly won a game on the road against a ranked team setting a school record for blocks in a single game, and this jack ass makes a statement like that ?!?!?
Outside of Nerlens and Anthony Davis, name a SINGLE college player from the past FIVE YEARS who can win a game on the DEFENSIVE side of the ball !! They don’t exist.
This statistical analysis says Nerlens is the best college defender of the past decade !!
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2013/01/29/Davis-Blocks-Record-12-Shots-May-Top-SWilliams-2006-for-Best%20Defender
January 30th, 2013 at 3:41 pm
BTW, Shouldn’t Noel be in the POY discussion?
January 30th, 2013 at 3:44 pm
So here’s the question these players need to ask. If you leave now, get drafted, and then spend the next year or two in the developmental league, was it worth it? Have you actually hurt your life time NBA earning potential by going to the league too early? You’d rather play at a high level for 15 years even if it means waiting a year or two before joining the league versus joining immediately and then dropping out in 3-5 years.
Here are players who were MUCH more NBA ready than Goodwin and Poythress, and ALL went to the developmental league. Patterson, TJ, Liggins, Miller, Lamb.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:45 pm
Amazes me that people still don’t understand that there are more factors involved in staying/going than “being ready.” Each guy’s circumstances are different, but to look at them from a fan’s perspective is completely wrong. Going 10th in a weak draft is considerably better than going 25th in a strong draft a year later regardless of what you want to believe.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:47 pm
Nerlens earned himself some NBA money last night; now if the kid had an offensive game, jump shot, and could hit free throws, his 2nd NBA contract would be huge.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:48 pm
9. You have fair points and, I agree with the premise of staying 1 more year to extend your career on the back side…. However, the NBA teams are using the developmental leagues differently than when the D-League first began….. They are now used for development and not so much as a “bad” thing anymore….Teams are looking to draft young and develop the talent.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:48 pm
The only disappointing thing about Nerlens freshman season has been the teams record and thats not do to Nerlens performance.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:51 pm
Archie almost has to go with the Harrison’s and Young coming in. There won’t be enough to go around.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:51 pm
10 – “Going 10th in a weak draft is considerably better than going 25th in a strong draft a year later”
You’ll need to provide some citations to support your claim. Show me the analysis that proves you’re correct.
January 30th, 2013 at 3:54 pm
#15, the first 14 picks are guaranteed millionaires regardless of performance. Thus the importance of the lottery. Top 14 and your golden…versus going 25th in a strong draft $$$$$$$$$
January 30th, 2013 at 3:57 pm
If Nerlens is the only one that leaves, how does Cal make the #’s work?
January 30th, 2013 at 3:59 pm
AD averaged 4.7 blocks per game….noel is right on pace with 4.7 bpg
January 30th, 2013 at 4:02 pm
PG – Harrison
SG – Harrison
SF – Wiggins (Hopefully)
PF – Marcus Lee (Randle if we dont get Wiggins)
C – WCS
Bench :
Harrow
Wiltjer
Dakari Johnson
Poythress
Goodwin
James Young
THAT is a College Basketball DREAM TEAM.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:03 pm
#17 Scholarships are year to year. Polson, Malone, Lanter, Long could be moved to walk on status – add Noel, Mays, and Beckham, you have 7 available.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:04 pm
Noel is great on defense and will improve on offense, has to, couldn’t get worse. Now for free throws, I can’t stand to watch him shoot free throws. How can someone play basketball for years and throw up bricks like that? If he could hit free throws, he would hands down be the number one pick.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:09 pm
Pretty sure Archie is gone. From the sound of it he has the mentality to be in the league (like Knight), even if he doesn’t have the game yet. I do think he will struggle a bunch though and would not be surprised to see him end up overseas after his first contract. He is just so far away from contributing in the NBA, and the league keeps getting younger and younger.
Noel is obviously gone. No real surprise there.
WCS will most likely be back. He has a ton of upside and as most have said can improve his stock drastically with another year in college, especially being on THE TEAM in college basketball next year. He’ll be the starting center on a team of stars.
Poythress is the wildcard for me. He has the body of a man, but he seems to have a long road ahead of him in trying to figure out who he is as a basketball player at a high level. I don’t think he has the mentality at all for the league yet, and actually I could see this year at UK scaring him away from making the jump. Look at how hard it has been for him to make the adjustment from high school to UK. And from all accounts it hasn’t been fun for the young man. Think he wants to go through that again right away? I don’t know the kid at all, but just my impression of him makes me think he’ll be back unless he has a HUGE end of the year and gets back in the top 10 conversation.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:10 pm
Harrow,Wiltjer and WCS? will return. Poythress, Goodwin and Noel all are 1st Round picks. Now if Cal can get one more player to sign next season with the 5 we have coming.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:13 pm
Noel is gone. WCS & Poythress are both probably gone. Both due to huge upsides, especially with their bodies. Harrow & Wiltjer ain’t going anywhere, unless Harrow transfers.
Archie’s the wild card really. His body isn’t NBA ready like Alex’s and he still has a lot to prove with his game. But with the class coming in, it seems like Cal almost needs Archie to go. I mean, where will the dude fit in with the guards coming in next yr? And if he doesn’t go, any chance a guy like Young asks out of his LOI?
January 30th, 2013 at 4:13 pm
16 – Well of course the first check would be bigger by going in the lottery. But what about full career earnings? What about the second and third checks? What about struggling for 3 years and getting bounced out of the league versus someone who is better prepared for the challenges of the NBA and has a solid 10 year career?
In other words, show me an analysis of full career earnings that investigates the scenario of leaving early and going lottery versus waiting a year or two and going in late first round. Who earns more over their career and how much more?
January 30th, 2013 at 4:14 pm
It’s gotten to the point that I expect Nerlens to block every shot taken in the lane, and am surprised when he doesn’t.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:15 pm
23 – We have 6 guys coming in next year. Harrison x 2, Lee, Young, Johnson and Willis.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:20 pm
Noel, Poythress, Goodwin, WCS are gone. They came to UK to be 1 and done. Wiltjer will be interesting. If he continues to play like last night, he may be gone too in a weak draft class. Harrow is intriguing. He will NOT start over Harrison. I don’t know what to do with Harrow.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:21 pm
15- Check the wage scale: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/rookie_scale
You cost yourself about $3 million on your initial contract (no matter how much of that time you spend in the D League) by passing on being the 10th pick vs the 25th. Obviously a lot of moving parts involved and no guarantees, but I hope you understand my point.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:22 pm
After seeing Daniel Orton and his 3 point/3 rebounds/3 goaltends per game drafted in the first round, I won’t be surprised by anybody who is drafted in the first round.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:24 pm
I agree with #24 except that I think Alex, Goodwin, and Noel are definitely gone. Whereas WCS may stay. I don’t think he will though.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:26 pm
#28. I agree except I don’t see Wiltjer getting drafted. I’ve never seen him mentioned on any draft boards. I can’t imagine him getting many open looks in the league, and he would get destroyed on defense. No way he leaves unless he transfers or plays in Turkey.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:27 pm
What if Noel was the only one to leave. I really dont know what the lineup would be nor would it really matter…
PG – Harrison, Harrow, Polson
SG – Harrison, Goodwin
SG/SF – Young, Wilter, Hood
PF – Poythress, Marcus Lee, Willis
PF – Randle, WCS, Johnson
That is a crazy team…
January 30th, 2013 at 4:28 pm
29 – Please see 25.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:28 pm
#33. What if Anthony Davis, MKG, Lamb, Jones and Teague came back this season. Looks good on paper, but not happening.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:31 pm
#35 Whether this draft is weak or not doesnt mean that as of now anyone in the NBA is drafting Goodwin or Poythress. Lots of talent and they may want to move on but have to step up their game to do it. I do think by the end of the year that at least 1 of the 2 steps up to become draftable.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:42 pm
@33 how about drawing a line up from Cal’s first year to now.
PG- Wall, Knight, Teague
SG- Bledsoe, Lamb, Goodwin
SF- Gilchrest, Poythress
PF- Davis, Jones
C- Cousins, Noel, WCS
Just saying
January 30th, 2013 at 4:46 pm
A third year Wiltjer will start next year. I believe he is just now beginning to realize his potential as a player and leader. Over the summer he will make huge strides on both counts as well. Next years team will be his.It’s Jan 30, 2013; remember this is the day I proclaimed such.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:49 pm
#36. Teague was drafted last year, and was not ready. A lot of players get drafted earlier than they’re truly deserving of. Check draft results from year’s past. A lot of NBA teams draft on potential regardless of whether players are ready or not, and hope that through practice, coaching, and higher competition they’ll develop to meet that potential. Many experts and analysts have Poythress, Goodwin, and WCS projected in the 10 to mid-20 range. I’ve never seen an instance where so many analysts project players this high, and they don’t even get drafted. These projections are occuring while the team has struggled. So yes, it’s fun to look at a “what-could-be” line-up. It just isn’t going to happen. Guess time will tell.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:51 pm
Mr. Ford believes a return would help “both their draft stock and their NBA careers”. I wouldn’t know about that but I’m reasonably sure it would go a long way toward improving my damn disposition next winter.
January 30th, 2013 at 4:57 pm
34- Understand your point. The scope of my argument was much smaller than yours.
40- Haha, MINE TOO!
January 30th, 2013 at 7:10 pm
I see alot of fans putting there faith in WCS returning, dont set yourself up for disappointment. In the next couples years you will see that TJ was an exception, players are not gonna stick around when the system is so drasticlly designed for early entry. You have parents 90% of the time lobbying for the kids to go, Cal believes getting them to the NBA anyway he can is a success, and at the end of the day its hard for 18-19 year old kids to turn down money and the perception of the NBA. In the last several years you have had John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Brandon Knight, and Eric Bledsoe have publicly stated they regret going early and wished they could still be “kids” in college. I hope an alternative is designed where college becomes more desireable in the 18 year old’s eyes.
January 31st, 2013 at 8:00 pm
You can not blame these kids for leaving even if they are sent to the D league. There first year most will make more money than many of us would in 20 years. They just need to be smart with their money. If they get 3 or 4 years in they are set for life.We realy only want them to stay for our own greed of having another championship.