Kentucky Sports Radio
[Moderated by Matt Jones, Drew Franklin and Tyler Thompson]
[Moderated by Matt Jones, Drew Franklin and Tyler Thompson]
The hot topic amongst the national media for the past few weeks is whether or not the Cats will make the tournament. After last night’s loss to Alabama, even the most devout Kentucky fans have their doubts. However, The Big Lead’s Jason Lisk went back and examined the fourteen BCS schools that received an at-large big and those seeded as a 10-seed or worse over the past two years, and found the Cats’ chances aren’t as bad as you may think.
On average, those teams:
- They won 27.6% of their games against NCAA Tourney at-large caliber teams (13 seed or better), averaging 3.2 wins and 8.4 losses.
- Six of the fourteen had two or fewer wins vs. NCAA Tourney at-large caliber teams, including in their conference tournaments. The lowest percentage was Clemson in 2011, who got into the First Four game with a 1-7 mark in such games.
- They lost an average of 3.4 games against non-NCAA Tourney at-large caliber teams.
- The “best” win, as judged by tournament seeding, was on average against a 5-seed. Only three of them had a win over a team seeded #3 or better in the NCAA Tournament, while seven others beat a 4-seed.
Lisk says the Cats currently have four losses to teams he projects will be in the field, including Duke and Louisville, which he predicts will be 1 or 2 seeds. Historically, bubble teams would have lost both of those games as well, by much larger margins than the Cats did. That being said, the Cats can’t afford many more bad losses:
If the Wildcats beat Florida once, and get one other win over Ole Miss or Missouri in the regular season or the conference tournament, they are in. If they only get one win against that group, they will be squarely on the bubble in March. If they have too many bad losses in the SEC, they could drop off entirely. I think they get there, but we probably won’t know for a while. Kentucky hosts Florida in their best chance to boost the profile in the final regular season game on March 9th.
Okay, I’m stepping back from the ledge. A little.
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Bill Keightley Report : Never to be forgotten.
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January 23rd, 2013 at 6:18 pm
As defending champs, on selection Sunday, Cats get the benefit of any doubt. (If it is close)
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:21 pm
It is called “Money” for the 1st and 2nd round games.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:24 pm
I hate the fact that we have to research all of the angles about getting to the tourny instead of just being concerned about winning games to get in.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:24 pm
Feel sorry for the ” bubble ” team we keep from playing…..
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:27 pm
Could Poythress start for the women’s team?? Heck no….he wouldn’t have the energy, pride, or “want to” to start for Mitchell’s team.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:28 pm
2 – This is the one tourney where “money” isn’t a big driver (unlike football bowl games, women’s NCAA, men’s NIT, etc.). Sure, our fans will travel to one of those first round sites in large numbers, but in the overall scheme of things that’s not a big deal to the NCAA, in comparison to all of the TV money.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:35 pm
We do or we don’t? We still have the best coach in basketball. We won it all last year and have great chance to do it next year. Been a fan for many many years and these are the best times since Rupp. Think about it. 2 final fours and a championship in 3 years. WOW
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:40 pm
Today’s actions by the NCAA prove that due process works. I’m here to stay bit@hes.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:42 pm
7 – I’m a long-time fan also (graduated high school same year as Issel, Pratt and Casey) and the Rupp years were great, but don’t forget about that nice little run from 1996 to 1998.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:44 pm
It’s already too late in the season to think this team can turn it around. It’s a very low basketball IQ team with only one guy that gives 100% every minute he plays. Sad but true.
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:52 pm
So this is what it’s come to? Having to find validation that we are even worthy of a bid?
Regardless of past success, it should never be deemed acceptable to be a bubble team at UK
With the talent level of what few quality players we do have, we should not have 6 losses to this point
Cal has not developed these players at all this season so far
No excuse for the quality of play we are seeing at this point in the season. Not acceptable
January 23rd, 2013 at 6:55 pm
Beat Florida just once???? LMAO! We will be lucky if the Gators don’t beat us 3 times this year. We might as well recognize that our little kitties are unlikely to make the big boy tournament this year and most likely won’t win the NIT. Meow…
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:04 pm
“Cat Fan in Louisville” aka: #6, I think your interpretation of my post may be off. By “Money” I was referring to the TV money contract and the view ratings for 1st round games.
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:06 pm
#3, I was just implying that history says, defending champs get in if on the bubble. I really hope the Cats are not on the bubble.
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:50 pm
I’m with #10wildcatsteeler…. only one player gives 100% effort 100% of the time. I knew we could turn it around a month, two months ago, but only with team effort. It hasn’t happened yet, and I’m not optimistic that it will. Just not enough time.
Hopefully we get WCS, Poythress back (Goodwin if he can learn), add our next class and have a strong team with Wiltjer’s improvements. Maybe Hood will come around too. Still watching this team, but looking forwards to next year…….
January 23rd, 2013 at 7:59 pm
This team is much more likely to have a couple more ‘bad’ SEC losses than beating Florida just once. Oh, and close losses (whatever that is) mean nothing. Nothing.
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:07 pm
Admit it Everyone-I am always on time and on target with compelling posts. I am an Original and you love me. You really do!
January 23rd, 2013 at 8:13 pm
Told u guys after the ND game this isn’t a tournament team, and i still believe the same. Hell cal don’t even know what to do with this mess of a team. I pray to god that goodwin and poyDRESS go pro.