Kentucky Sports Radio
[Moderated by Matt Jones, Drew Franklin and Tyler Thompson]
[Moderated by Matt Jones, Drew Franklin and Tyler Thompson]
We love Jay Bilas, despite that whole Duke grad thing. He’s widely considered one of the most rational national media members in the game, which makes us sit up a little straighter when he stalks about the Cats. Today, he and Chad Ford discuss the five most “overrated” prospects in college basketball, and Bilas puts Nerlens Noel atop his list, which he points out is just as much a reflection of the media’s inaccurate projections as it is the players’ failure to meet expectations:
Consider Noel’s numbers and performance so far. Halfway through his freshman season, Noel is averaging 10.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.7 blocks, 2.7 steals and 1.9 assists per game while shooting 58 percent from the floor and 58 percent from the line on 3.9 attempts per contest. Noel is the only player taller than 6-foot-5 who ranks in the top 30 in the nation in steals, and is the only player in the top 30 in the country in both steals and blocks.
Contrast that with the freshman season of Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing. In his first season at Georgetown, Ewing averaged 12.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 1.08 steals and 0.6 assists per game while shooting 63 percent from the floor and 62 percent from the line on 4.5 attempts per game.
Does the fact Noel’s numbers are comparable and in some categories superior to Ewing’s numbers indicate that Noel is as good or will be as good as Ewing? Of course not. However, it underscores that this is not a race, and today’s “overrated” player can be tomorrow’s hot prospect. These players who are not yet where we want them to be — or where we projected them to be — may very well get there in time. Yet time is the one thing we don’t allow them.
Of the four UK freshmen, I’d argue that Nerlens has lived up to his expectations the most, but in the grand scheme of college basketball, is he really “overrated” so far?
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January 14th, 2013 at 5:05 pm
Love Bilas but this is so far off base it’s just silly. He’s exactly what people said he would be.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:08 pm
Does anyone remember that this kid reclassified and moved up a grade? He should still be playing high school ball. He has already exceeded my expectations.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:09 pm
The hustle factor is what sells me on Noel. I’ll take 12 of him any day.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:09 pm
Great job, Mrs. TT. The posts KEEP on.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:11 pm
So he’s overrated bc he’s not Patrick Ewing…um okay
January 14th, 2013 at 5:11 pm
When you read the article in the context, I dont believe he was calling Noel overrated at all. Bad reporting, in my opinion.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:15 pm
Does anybody still think this team will make the tourn. I don’t think they will be above 500 in conference play. Any thoughts.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:15 pm
Nerlens Noel is a post player version of MKG. If you judge him by his numbers you will never get the whole picture… and by the way his numbers are good.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:15 pm
One THING that irks me about this site, the OP never gets in on their posts comments. I am sure that is part of the game plan: ie; incite the crowd and move on, but wouldn’t ya think it would be more exciting and ReDQulious if the OP was involved w the comments?
January 14th, 2013 at 5:19 pm
I normally find Bilas to be the smartest college basketball analyst out there (other than Thomas Beisner, of course). But this is surprisingly far off-base. As another commenter said, Nerlens is what everybody expected him to be: worthy of a top prospect, but not quite Anthony Davis. His numbers are outstanding, his effort is unquestionable (rare on this team), and he tends to fill up the stat sheet. The only truly weak areas of his game are his post-up moves (which really aren’t any worse than we anticipated, and actually more polished than I expected) and his free-throw shooting, which is not abnormal for a big man.
The only way he would be overrated is if Bilas seriously overestimated what to expect from Noel, which is to say he expected another Anthony Davis. And I feel certain Bilas is smarter than to have expected that.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:20 pm
I didn’t read the article, but I’d agree that Noel is over rated right now. Is he a great player who can fill a stat sheet? YES! But does that make him a #1 draft pick? Not necessarily. The best players not only play well, they make everyone else on the team play well also, which so far he hasn’t done, at least not that I can see. Not like MKG did.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:20 pm
Ditto to what 6 (Nathan) said.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:20 pm
Does anybody think this team will make the tourn? And why? They will lose 12-13 games this year.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:24 pm
The SEC tourn? We couldn’t win it last year. We are one of the four worst teams in the SEC and that is really saying something this year. These guys quit to a level that you can’t recover from last game.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:33 pm
18(Go cats) – Are you a troll, b/c you sure as hell can’t be serious.
January 14th, 2013 at 5:39 pm
Guys. I LOVE MY CATS. No troll would say that. I haven’t missed a UK game in almost 20 years. I usually watch every game at least twice. Even losses. This is probably the most overrated UK team in that time. I thought they were going to be just as good as you did at the start of the season. But guys I think they will lose not one but two more games at Rupp this year. This team has some talent but no clue how to put it together.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:00 pm
I’ve been saying it all year, Noel isn’t playing like a top-3 draft pick. 10pts and 9rebs is average numbers for a big man, although he does have good numbers in blocks. He has trouble hitting easy shots inside and his free throw shooting is atrocious. He often gets out-muscled and goes for every single pump fake. Rarely does it seem like he’s the best player on the court and, for these reasons, Bilas is unfortunately right–he’s a little overrated (at this point).
January 14th, 2013 at 6:14 pm
I love Bilas but he is dead wrong on this one. He’s averaging these numbers on a team where he gets very little help. And to compare to Ewing? Top to bottom the players are infinitely better now than when Ewing played.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:41 pm
“Act like you’ve been there before.” Louisville cannot handle this.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:48 pm
Rivals is reporting James Quick will take an official to UK this weekend!
January 14th, 2013 at 6:49 pm
I seriously hope UofL doesn’t make it past the 2nd round. And if history has shown us, that’s not outside the realm of possibility. In fact, it’s almost likely.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:50 pm
Nerlens didnt move ahead a class, he moved back to his original 2012 class. The man is 18yrs old and will be nineteen this spring.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:50 pm
29-50 Needs to chill. We truly know he is a Louisville fan because its immature. He is probably a 15 year old kid that has nothing better to do other than play Black Ops for 5 hours straight and post on a UK site about how much he loves penises and U of L’s Dirty Birds. Uk needs a new Coach?? I dont think our coach is the one cheating on his wife for the famous 15 seconds. I admit, UK isnt a good team this year. But this is a bad year sandwiched it between National Championship teams. I bet that immature piece of crap didnt talk that trash last year, and I dare him to do it next year.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:51 pm
I like this kid. He gives it all when he’s on the court. Does a lot of good things off it from what I’ve heard. You can tell he is working on all parts of his game. Shot free throws extremely well vs A&M. Very good form. I’d like to see him develop a little jumper from the free throw line. He could kill it from there and punish the 2-3 zone.
January 14th, 2013 at 6:54 pm
@Go cats – Ever get the feeling that people are totally ignoring you?
January 14th, 2013 at 7:01 pm
UCONN 75
LOUISVILLE 71
January 14th, 2013 at 7:03 pm
Lets Go UCONN!! Let get this done.
January 14th, 2013 at 7:04 pm
I think Nerlens is underrated. I honestly think, and idk if you will agree, but if you put Nerlens in Anthony Davis’s shoes last year, i think they would be about equal. Anthony may be slightly better, because he can hit that mid- range jumper. But Nerlens footwork is amazing. He can pump one way and go another. He is good on both ends, like Anthony. But Nerlens is having to do a whole lot more on this team that Anthony did. Im not saying Anthony was spoonfed, but you have to remember he was surrounded by lamb, miller, MKG, jones, and teague. Nerlens has Archie, and mays. I think Nerlens has to fill a bigger role than Anthony ever had to. Anthony was getting a whole lot more pub than Nerlens is right now. In saying that, if both are the same and someone wants to say Nerlens is overrated, then you can equate that to say Anthony was overrated, in which most would say he wasnt. Am i the only one who feels that way?
January 14th, 2013 at 7:05 pm
I think what Jay is doing is making fun of the media and fans that label these young players, superstars and saviors, before they even get on campus. We put the cherry on top of the Sunday before the whip creme is even in place. Jay clearly states that Nerlens is only overrated in the eyes of the media and fans. That yes today he isn’t the mega 2nd coming of Anthony Davis, but yes at the end of the year, after we’re looking back, you can legitimately state that Noel can be the best prospect in the country. Then he states that time is the only thing these players aren’t granted. Just like Alex and Nerlens. We give them no chance to grow and no room for error. We expect perfection from the get go, because we have been spoiled. It’s going to take a different mindset and total makeover mentally for these young guys to “buy in” like Cal says. They have to change the thought of “greatness is expected, and you dont have to work hard for it”. I think Nerlens is starting to, others have yet to figure that out for themselves! Think of the pressure that these 18-19 year old kids are facing. I know I would have some trouble at first. Lets give these guys a break, after all, Miller, Jones and lamb were there for Davis, MKG and Teague. I sure dont see that same support for our new young studs this year! Lets see them find their own way, before we think we have the path figured out for them..
January 14th, 2013 at 7:07 pm
Sorry for the rewrite! My original was not posted right away
January 14th, 2013 at 7:19 pm
LOL @49 2 FINAL FOURS> 1 TITLE????? IM PRETTY SURE WE HAVE BACK-TO-BACK FINAL FOURS. INCLUDING THE NATIONAL CHAPIONSHIP!
January 14th, 2013 at 7:22 pm
Noel has been awesome and his heart/hustle is what makes this his team. You can’t get mad at someone who tries as hard as he does. I think he is exactly what we had hoped he would be. Now if Archie can play smart basketball and Alex can stop charging we win.
January 14th, 2013 at 7:23 pm
Good post 77. Give these young cats time.
January 14th, 2013 at 7:33 pm
Teams can jell very quickly and take off. It’s a
Mystery.
January 14th, 2013 at 7:35 pm
Whether you agree with Bilas or not, he does state what he believes. That goes for any team, player, coach, or organization and its why I respect him. If Duke were in our position right now, he would be all over them and he has done exactly that in the past too.
January 14th, 2013 at 7:45 pm
VOTE FOR KENTUCKY EA SPORTS COVER, WE’RE WAYYYYY DOWNNN
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January 14th, 2013 at 7:56 pm
Come on guys, he is running circles around those other lazy ba$tards out there. Anthony Davis would have been in the same mess if he had to play with a group like this. But the truth is there is no dominating team this year or last even, and the reason is not only KY but many teams have lost all these guys to the draft. Until they change the rules NCAA basketball is going to continue to suck. Sorry I calls em as I see’s em.
January 14th, 2013 at 8:26 pm
Nerlans is still the overall #1 NBA draft pick as of now and for good reason. He’s playing with two freshmen who disappear when there is trouble and another who is just learning the game. He’s one of the five best big men to ever play at UK, Spivey, Issel, Bowie, Davis and Nerlans. He gets better every week and he will at some point completely dominate at least one game. He’s capable of scoring much more than he is. When he does you’ll have the outside open for Wiltjer and Harrow. Different team when that happens.
January 14th, 2013 at 9:23 pm
Noel is a victim of the team’s lack of success. Give him the same production on a top 10 team and he would never make this list.
January 14th, 2013 at 10:37 pm
i think N2 has more heart and motor than any big in college bb today. we’ll see if the pros agree this spring – spoiler: I’m so tired of the word “upside” that my head has run out of explosions.
meanwhile, Jay Bilas, i wonder what you think Noel will be doing next year – NBA or getting that thin build ready for the league with another year with UK? do you think nba survives staking their fortunes on teenagers?
January 15th, 2013 at 1:40 am
If I’m not mistaken, Bilas was using Noel as an example of someone that OTHERS may consider overrated, however, his Number 1 was James Michael McAdoo was it not? This goes to what 6 said. Bilas has been an ally, but placing him out of context cannot make him happy.
January 15th, 2013 at 5:28 am
Nerlens is everything i expected…as is Harrow, Cauley, and Mays(oustside recent shooting slump)….Wiltjer is offensively but he seems to go backwards on defense every game…Goodwin and Poythris need to find control and realize the team aspect will get them to the league, not them trying too hard. Those last 2 guys take Nerlens off this list when they start playing UK basketball!!
January 15th, 2013 at 7:29 am
I typically respect Jay’s opinion but this one is simply way off. He is doing exactly what everybody expected.
January 15th, 2013 at 8:13 am
I love ya TT, but this article should have been quoted with better context. It is an Insider article, so not everyone can read the entire thing themselves. For example, read the first paragraph:
“I am not a big fan of “overrated” prospect lists. When we go through this exercise, I always get the feeling that we are simply blaming the player for our mistakes in projecting and evaluating talent, or our “irrational exuberance” over a player’s future potential. Instead of calling ourselves out for our mistakes, we tend to pile on the player for failing to live up to our billing of him. We rate and hype them, and if they don’t meet our standard, we call them “overrated” instead of stating that we whiffed, or simply moving on to those players who are meeting that standard.”
Bilas isn’t slamming Noel. He is simply stating that he is playing well, but not to the hype that he came in with. Please remember this is being compared to the hype media was giving him, not the expectations of the fan base. He was being hyped by the media as the next potential Anthony Davis. No one is going to be Anthony Davis for quite some time and we knew that going into this season. The second paragraph:
“Look, I’m not naive. I understand that, right or wrong, dealing with expectations and the media is part of the deal. But I am still not comfortable with it. Notwithstanding our whiffs, there are some players who have not lived up to our advance billing. But it should also be noted that they haven’t lived up to it yet. There is no clock on this, and just because Anthony Davis figured it out as a freshman and was ahead of the curve while Nerlens Noel hasn’t (yet), doesn’t mean that Noel won’t get there, or that what he is doing now is not impressive.”
TT doesn’t mention that later Alex is on the list as well:
“Poythress is like McAdoo in a way. He was hyped coming out of high school and has been very good. However, he has not been as good as we said he was going to be. Coming into the season, I projected Poythress to be among the top candidates for SEC Player of the Year. After 15 games, Poythress is averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds and shooting 63 percent from the field. But over his past five games, he has averaged 10 points on only 5.5 shots per game. Poythress has been inconsistent against the best teams. He is a spectacular athlete who can physically dominate an opponent with his size (6-7, 239), athleticism and length, but he lacks a position and an understanding of how to impact games consistently. Poythress is not a natural perimeter player nor a natural back-to-the-basket post. But he is a freshman playing with other freshmen, none of whom have it figured out yet. Poythress is going to get there, and will be a first-round pick in this year’s draft. I believe he will get there this season as a college player, but he is not there yet. To date, he has not yet lived up to our hype.”
I feel that Bilas was pretty spot on with his assessment of our Freshmen.
January 15th, 2013 at 8:52 am
This is one of those situations where the media calls out the media and says these players are overrated, that team is overrated, but now no one claims to be the media. Where did the media go? It would be refreshing for the media to show up and come clean and admit that they don’t really know how to evaluate teams or talent. Not sure what the media is good for other than maybe getting the box score in the paper. Can’t go wrong with the facts.
January 15th, 2013 at 9:02 am
Gotta disagree with my main Bilas on this one. Noel has been everything people said he would be, and then some. He doesn’t have much help, either.
January 15th, 2013 at 9:08 am
I tweeted Jay Bilas about this and he actually responded and apopogized for a mistake in his article… He changed the article and Noel is no longer on his list.
January 15th, 2013 at 12:53 pm
He has definitely been our best player, but he lacks as they all do in basketball IQ at times. All of them need work in the mental game of how the game is played. I don’t believe he is good as
Anthony Davis as defense was superb despite his numbers being less it he was the best help defender weve ever had. This team has trouble on defense and understanding how to guard and help correctly as well on how to move without the ball.